                           ˿µϣ20091027գ

09.10.27, ѧš˭Ф
09.10.27, ƽʼʱҽѧģʽͳҹҽ״ټȥˣϣ
09.10.27, ϺƾѧУꡰ˫̥̥֡ 
09.10.27, huguanglingϴѧ봫ѧԺԺڳϮ
09.10.27, ˡݵӡϮ˵ġȫ򻯱µ޵Ӵý
09.10.27, VictorУʦġ˼ά
09.10.27, DWۺ˵ѹ
09.10.27, ԡΪϣҲʧпԺоԺС
09.10.27, ӡѧ淶ܷӡ
09.10.27, Forestҩ硱áĴ¡
09.10.27, ·͡㽭ѧУҽԺõҩ硱ʲô
09.10.27, iheaingΪʲôҽԺҩ
09.10.27, ȷ硶л·˼ͤĵڰƪͶԸĵĸ˿
09.10.27, David Ng˭оMany is better than all
09.10.27, רҡ־ʵ֮Ҽ
09.10.27, ִšϾѧ־¼
09.10.27, Kolmogorov־¼һ롷
09.10.27, º衶־¼ķ塷
09.10.27, TongTongд֪ܵˡ͡İ ˡ
09.10.27, ߸˹İ𡱺֪ܵ͡ˡ©
09.10.27, °ԡ￿νΰһĲϸڵ˵
09.10.27, 2

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˭Ф

20091027աѧš־

 ۡ

ڸĸĲ£СŽɫƽ

ǾФϷ仡ƵĻߡһ֮ǰФ
ڲõ£ӼѰһơȷе˵
ǲãøˡ

СΨһһܴĻ1016գλѻĸ
ͬʱԴҽԺ˷ͥ״˵ǰǵĺ
ҽԺƴСʧûתңǺͬ
סԺĲУûһģҽԺġ85%ɹʡ
ԶΪصǣȳήΣصĺ֢

֮

ΪСƵҽ˵ͬнۣ
ô˵ġ

2007ףСĸ׵һע⵽˵ӲФġФϷ仡
ЧƬӡڴ֮ǰĤСѾ
Ч΢Сĸ׾һѵõĻᣬһ¡

ʱҲѯҽСĸ׸ߡѧšǺ˵
òҪĸ̫ļˣһϣҲҪһ¡

ӵӺ˽⵽֣ҲƵСĸ׾͸ϵ֣ݡ
ҽƻĵͿڶѯ£
֪һĴФ人ЭҽԺ

20083£ļҹϳ人һˣФھٰ
ĹֻᡣʱҲѧǼȫ
дԽϡ̨Ĳˡ˼Ƕϵʱʮˣ
߰˸˶ϵû˵һõġʱ˵ǣ 60%
ʡ

Сĸ˵յʱĳŵС굽һʱͿ
ɫһ붼ȥˣȻûеõơĤ
ЩڷΪФϷ仡һֻŵȥӰסҽ˵
ëŵȥӣЧãǱҽŵ񾭽˹ȥҽ
˵ҽʱٶһ㣬ĸ»ָꡣ
һˣ˫ûһֻãͬʱ׵ûлָ

ҵ֣ݿʱ򣬾Щũ࣬ǮǮ
յǮҪǲˡû
õģǼСĸ˵

Скѧڼˣ׾öҲûá˵Ҫȥ
˾ҲҪˣֻҪСܿһνˡ

ֻҪһ˿ϣǻ᲻ϧκδ۽ҽΡСĸ˵

һ

Сܵһ˹仡ۣ人ЭҽԺ
Фڡ

侯ҽԺμСФܹۣ֮
ڲҽԺչ̶ܴϹ鹦2004һᡣ

20048£ɼרͬҽѧԺ÷桢ѧҽѧ7λԺ
ʿһɵļᣬ϶ФĳɹڽԼĤ
СʧءҪͻĴԡ

ݵʱĵҽѧԺʿ䣬Ŀʱι
ȻѧίѧҶƼһЩϵĽܣóɹڹ
Ҳкܺõķ죬йרҵ鶼˽ܣڹźܸߵۡ

ļרȴȱݡ鳤ľҽ
ѧľϹ˳ڻ񾭵оٴóеרУֻ
ҽѧĽƵרҡʱйƵ
ΨһһԺʿӦ»֮СʵФϵĸɹμӹҿƼ
ԼФϲ걨ԺʿʱӦ»һЩЧ
ôȷʵ

ҲרŸƵģʱίרƼ⣬÷
ҲȽ͡ҷǳýڣƽһѧǿˣҽ¡ҽ
綼ǵ䷶ûнӴ֮ǰҶɹкøС˵

μϣФר˼ˣЧнǶȿ
΢ʩӵѹڸͿˡΪרҵĽ
ܱĿǰҪѹɵģ񾭹ָܻɵġ

ʱлίרƼ÷ǿƼһˣرǹ
ۺܸߣҾǷǳõ飬йԭġ͵ĳɹ̫࣬ұ
Źѧϰ̬ȣʱûǲģҲû̫˵Ϊٴ
١̹ԡ

ͬʱרҲóɹ䱻Ϊٴϵʵ⣬ԭ
ƣ⣬оѧҲӦʵʱרҴ
ģٴҽ٣רȻɹȷΪȽ

һЩءȨԣˣ
ԺʿҲйĴͳҪܱٴͬ
ġߡѧš

ФúƯЧҲܺá֮÷Ƽ
ľҽѧľϹԺʿŽǡ١ġΪʦǺģ
ϸģʦƽɽȥ˵ġʦϹФĹ
ٴϻмֵģȻϻҪơ

ѡԺʿǵĻ

ϳɹͨƺΪФѡԺʿ춨õĻ2005
914գѺ˾йЭҽƴѧ뷽ѺƵ
̸ҽѧĹ淶ڡФϷ仡ѧλɣ20059
21գѺƵ¡ֻ̤йԺʿԽѡԽġУ
һָФڹϺӰ죬ФϷ仡ڹҽѧҲûе
Ͽɡ

ФΪЩʵıرǶѧ
ϿɵĸָؾȫʵȨɴˣФ
Ժϡ

2005108գФ人Ժʽݽ״ֱ2007
1130գи߼ԺоΪֹڴͬФ
Ⱥ人ϽʮΣ״﷽Ȩ

2006725գ人ԺһУӰߡãȺ600
ڡ֪ʶӹФ߷ӰĹšǩ鷨Ժ
гƣ׫д¶ԺʿѡФɣ
ѧۼලȫйѧԺԺʿѡԼǿ
ԺʿѡļලĿģͬʱҲΪȨ

Ҿô˾Ҳû˼Ϲ˵˼ϰô˵㣬ʲô
ʲôҪ棬ûҪû˾˾ܹ
ȥ㶼㲻𡣡

20071130գи߼ԺоӷɵĽǶ˵˫
Ф˵ѧˮƽԼФϷ仡ĹӰ췽ڽϴ顣Ժ
ΪѧΧڵ飬Ӧѧѧ
ƽԺӦûԴС

ͬе

Ȼϲܽѧˣô˭ФġФ
仡Ըоɥǣڹ˾ûһͬԸ
ٶԴɹۡ

һҽԺרҸߡѧšͬĿǰǲ
ܵģҸұ֤ûһλרԸۡͬĻ˵ʲô
Фкܶ˵ҵĲԡͬʱΪФķһ
ֵÿ϶оֻɶʵ鵽ٴҪ࿼ǡФ
ˣǾǡΪãһкܶҪ˵

񾭻оľϹ̹ФһʼĻоõ
΢֯Ƭŷ⣬˸ͼ񾭽
мǲȷġΪͨƤ񾭷Ӧֱӵ˶Ԫ
ɷ仡ôġַ仡ֱӵģƤо
õǾмԪܵǰȥġȱ˸ڣͻҲ
˼ΪǺܶԵġϹ˵Ҳϲ顣

2003꣬ڱٿĵ42ʼϣϺͬҽԺ
ФȺ˴˷ѧ档ФЩ£ǰϸ
ҲⷽʵоҵıУĩβ1ŻõƬ
仡ûи壬ҪһоҲФڵ潻
Щд⡣ߡѧš

˺дԡ˹仡ĴԼ500ʵۣ
2004ѧ־ϡ

ΪͬеıҽԺ¾ܾκۣΨһ
ԺʿӦ»Ҳ岻áԭ˼ߵĲɷá

ٴȨ鲢ûнУйһʲûһ
Եͳƽ֣֡ݵҽԺѾֹͣ

Ϥ200932հ䲼51ʵʩġҽƼٴӦù
취ڰȫԡЧ辭淶ٴоһ֤ҽƼ
ҽƼּҽƼҪżϸ
ƹҽƼٴӦˡҽƼٴӦõļලҲ
ÿݵĹ

Фˡһڼ˺ɿ˹塪ϵͳ
;15ߵĳо

Ҫڼ˺ؽɿȻҽѧϵһսФ
ڶٴнһȤоˡƤϵ
ͳס˹;ǵͶԼ˲
ư׵ٴ飬ҪԸ˹塪ϵͳס;
ۡ

ǹȻ˹֮ĹϵǼ
˵ĲУͨһȻܹĲ
Ƿ񻹱ȻأңΪ˹仡ܡơ


Σһ񾭸ӦñѡΪ

һǹδʹͻ񾭶ǵֳ񾭵
Ŀð׶Լøٷֲôܹ
ĩҵͻǿ񾭵ͻأ

һǣƤ촫һǸЧʽڡƤ
ϵͳס͡졪ϵͳס;֮䣬
βͬһиõĽأ

һǹǷҪд͡ٴѾ֤4
5񾭸ű㶼ûЧѡгǼ
˵񾭸ͨһʼƺЧǳЧȴʧǵ
ǣ塪ϵͳס仡ֻǽһµ
Ӱ쵽׵˳ӦԺʹ湦ܡˣûнǡ
;ȥ塪ϵͳס仡սᵼ°
ķȺ;ΡͻʲôãǷʹ
ʧЧأ

֮ڵó֮ǰҪиʵٴоҪгڵ
ٵ顣

ժѧ־20046ºŵ171ڵ2387-2388ҳԭ
ϵϺͬôѧͬҽԺ

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ʱҽѧģʽͳҹҽ״ټȥˣϣ

ߣƽʼ

Ѿ˻ỳйĺƽйƽ30ǲϽ
˼30꣬ǲϳƾ˼άģʽ30ꡣȻ
չȣ죬ҽѾΪ˼άģʽزŵ
ͷˡ˼άģʽһӾѧںϵ
ҹǿصѧƽ衣ڽۺܶࡾ12
ǱĵĹע㡣Ĺעҽ򡣱ΪĿǰҹҽ
ڵϰʱҽѧģʽĹӰܲɷ֡
ͼϳ̨õҽĽصʵʩҽѧģʽҹ
Ӱ죬̽ԭν˼룬ҽѧģʽĽ顣ķ
֣ƪҹ״ȻҽѧģʽѾʱµ--
-ҽѧģʽѾȻҽĽصʵʩȴҽѧ
ģʽӰ졣ƪʷĽǶȻع˽ཡ-ҽѧģʽݱʷ
ƪҽѧģʽתڽִʷĴ󱳾ֹܹ̽ʱ
ҽѧģʽӰԭΰҽѧģʽҽѧģʽת
Ľ顣

1. ҽѧģʽѾʱ

ҽѧģʽĽ˲ĥΰס
ҽѧģʽָ£Ͻ˼ǧвཡĴȾ
׷˸ı仯ƽߡȻѧָȻ
ں̶ܴܹ֧䣬͵š
ǲôȷȫĲڷӰ졣3Ե򵥲ϸ
ΪҽѧģʽʮȻѧѸٷչܿȡҺ
ƽѧ˵Ϊľҽѧģʽѧָٴʵ˴Ⱦ
ȡ˻Ի͵ĳɾ͡4Ȼ21ȫ򻯺ͳлʹ
еΣز, ཡսԷǴȾԼ¼
ơȻõ򵥲ϸΪҽѧģʽָ
ԤͿԵõģʽָЧĲҲȻЧ١
磬ֵĴȾҲһȷĲϸġ򡱣ϸ
ҽѧģʽҲûԽͼӰ졣5ʹǴȾ
21͵Ľ죬򵥲ϸΪҽѧģʽҲˡϸ
⡱˵μH1N1еȫУȺձ׸
֮⣬ҪΣ֮һǾͺͽͨ˿صġʮ
ǰڱļH1N1ô̵ʱ䴫йǲܵģΪʱ
ĽͨҪµʱܰ˺Ͳӱĳ͵й
ֻҪ12СʱΪѧԣԭемԵص㣬
ҲˣΪٽͨߺͿյռص˿ܼĴ
ڻѾˡ67 ҽѧģʽָҩ
شȾͺЧͻSARSͼH1N1УЩν
߿ƼʩҲˡ硰ԶˮʡҩﲻЧ׳
ҩԡ82003ҹSARSڲҽѧģʽָǿҲԭ
ǿ磬ǿҩڽڰˡʶҽѧģʽľԣı
սԣȺȺأܿתΪʤ91011ڽеķؼ
H1N1йȡ˿SARSս۵ľͽѵһʼͰҽѧ
ģʽֲôͳǸ߿ƼֶΣȡ˾Ŀĵһ
γɾͣۺϷЧԺ෢ҡ7

ʵ֤Ե򵥲ϸΪҽѧģʽ
ʱˡôʲôʱҽѧģʽأʮ
ĿѧҸʮҪǹԤҽѧѧоĳɹ
--ҽѧģʽ1235ǰ1974꣩ô
£Lalonde棨ĳ̶ֳ൱ǵҽķָ񽡿
ҽƷҲǽĵġġ
Ҫĸ棺ѧģģʽϰߵĺҽ
ϵͳء13±ĳ˵˽¼Ԫ
ʮڽоһһε֤Ȼ
ỷʽϰߣΪԽӰԶԶڽ
עġҽƷ񣩶ԽӰ졣о֣ڹȥĽ100
ʱƽ30ꡣӵ30꣬йԤ25꣬
ҽƷֻ5ꡣ1419ǰ1990˹˹أEvans & 
StoddartĶģʽ15ͼ1һԵ򵥲
ϸΪҽѧģʽȫͬģϵͳƵʶཡ
ģʽ,---ҽѧģʽ

ģʽһĿľҪıĽԵ򵥲ϸ
ΪҽѧģʽĿѧ֤֤֮
ŷǳӵĹϵʱ19601970ڣҽ
ֻעṩҽƷģʽָỷȻͻԶ
Ծ˽ѧΪѧزӰ졣ģʽṩҪѧϢ
ǣΪǼ򵥵ĸѡǶ֯ĸͬ໥
÷ӰĽ15ˣҪԤͿѧԶԶ
ģҪͬʱı价͸Ϊ

֮21͵Ľ죬ѾڶʵͿѧ֤ݸǣ򵥲
ϸΪҽѧģʽѾʱˡҽѧģʽѧΪ
˽ˡʵһ˻
ˣˣˡķչ˵ѧԶԽӰԽԽС
Ǳؿѧ֤ݣµĽ---ҽ
ѧģʽָǵƶϵ͹˵ճΪֻ
ǲܱĿǰпֵܳġԯޡ棬õعҹĽԴ
ձ߹Ľˮƽ

2. ҽѧģʽӰҽĽصʵʩ	

2009317չġй롡ԺҽҩƸĸ
ָ˼ͻԭ򶼷ǳãԱ񽡿Ϊġ
ȫ񽡿ˮƽٽгȻͬ47չ<<ҽҩƸ
صʵʩ꣩>>ҽʵʩ16
¹ع񽡿гĹؼⱻˣԿҽѧ
ģʽʵʩӰ졣 

ȣͨʲô;ȫ񽡿ˮƽٽг⡣ͨ
Ϻʹٽֻͨעҽȫ񽡿ˮƽ¾ҽѧģʽ
ˮ롣ҽѧģʽĵδѧϽȺеļ⣬
ҽѧģʽĵδỷȶ෽Ԥʹٽ
ĿǰҽʵʩԿҽѧӰ죺Ⱥڷӳ϶ġ
ѡ⡱ϰտĻԡ1617

ʵǰֶ֮һĿˡֶ֮һĿĵĽ
ɱǿһˣˣ棬ֺ˴󲿷ˣԽ
ˣ档ֿƸеʵǼ˴ġĹҽ
ԴӦеģӦֻԴڼȺֻڡϺơϵ
ͳͶʡκ˶ûθֽΣضڽ80%˿ڵ
άʹٽ񽡿ĽǶؼԻȺ𺦺ͷؽ
ΣضԽȺ𺦶ͬҪġθֽΣʹ
ԽȺΪȺǲҲǲµġӶԽȺĸֽ
вЩȺȺĽȻǼȺһ죬
еҽϵͳȻҪɡ

2007껨22ǧԪûнĿѣ⣬
Լÿ6˾һûҽƱա18й˿4ࡣ
ҹЩҩҽҩеļ۸ѾҪﵽÿ6һ
ûҽƱյˮƽҪ9.5Ԫݹͳƾ֣2008йĹ
ֵֻ44ǧԪ19ӦóϣܹսѾȷ
սǰƣơʵļƻУǲûܹ¾ɵ
ҽѧģʽҲûܹ漯ŵ谭ûȷ£
ԴͶڼϡʵԯޣȻǲȷԽԽ
⣬Ϊӹִ͹ҵл
ƼĸЧʺͬʱĽǲԽԽࡣҽġ
µ---ҽѧģʽѾȷָ񽡿ҽƷ
Ҳǽĵġġһ£ڼ׷
仯Ľ죬עܿ񽡿ϣ

չĵĴιҪǣ2008꣬ȫҽ
ȷϵԲﵽ2.6ڡȥʮ꣬ƽÿ1000
Բ20Դͷȥı䲻ĻͲΪ
ϰߣȺеԲΣأȺĽˮƽȷ
ȥǲģΪԲҽõģ没
ķ֮һ˿ٻһԲķ֮ҽԴ
֮һ˻Բÿ궼ӡ˵Բ
ƣֻעҽƷʵǶҹҽԴļ˷Ѻͷ
ΪͶԲƵĽرǼ͵ġ

ǱӸתֻ20%˵Ŀ⵽80%
Ϊ˵ĽҽķִӦôӸֻע
ʱҽѧģʽĹý¿ѧչ---
ҽѧģʽָעĻܽ
󿴲ѵ⣬ӴĿõԲô죿Ŀܲ
ǿɣй׷ӦнСᣬ
ᡱ

ڶҽԴ۸λʯʯ⡣ڹ
ʱҽѧģʽӰ£ҩҽ豸ҽԴ
---ҽѧģʽйϡȱҽԴά
ʹٽ˽벻רҵҽԱǽҩҺĲģǸ
ҽ豸ʵҼԼȻ죬йһҽѧԺڵƽ
ʻϵͳһձҵõıƽ롣ڱһҽԺסԺ
һ죬йһҽԱṩշֻ40Ԫңסһ䲡
ڱ40ԪҪһд! ҽϺƼмֵģ
50%ϵϢҽͲ˵ĽͨṩѯΪ
涨ֻռ͵ĹҺŷѣ˵ֵߵĸֶʵҼ飬
X飬CTȼ۸ȴǸߵ档21йҽԴ۵
͡ҩѸߣĲĸߣѸߣҽʵͣʿʵͣ
ѵͣǲܹп޶ԡǲǽ߼ֵҽƷ
ѹһͼˮƽеԶɱɱߡ
ɾ޴ּǿҽԴǻָʵֵʱˡ
ϣҽܹʵȡԭгɣҽ
ʿͶֵõʵ֣Լֵ߿ԴĸҽԴ
ļ۸

ǶӵĴҽ⡣ҽѧģʽĽֻž
ʣνġ֤ݡרҵҽԱжϡӵĴҽ
ĹӰΪģΪΥ͹۹ɣҽ
ԱķʽҽгҽƾʵС֤εáķǲ
ҽѧǿѧϵĵӡٺõҽҲÿζȷԤ
Ϻƽ֤ñҽ࿪ҽϲҪļȡ֤Ա
˷˱ϡȱҽԴƶרŶҽһְҵܡؿۡ
Ƿҹ󲿷ֵҽԱֱҵһʵŴҽ
ҵдڵģҵҲеĸ󣬡ħҽ飬ʵ
ϵҽṩҽƷġ书Ϊҽڰ˻ָĹУ
ͨϺƣʱˣǰˣԶǰοˡ
˶ҽΪħҽôȥͰοˣܰʱ
ҽѧģʽܹȽ---ҽѧģʽǾͲ
⼲ת͹ĽȫҽԱΣҩ
ĽѧأѧأغͻعͬõĽ
ôҽķִкȻͻᣬ෽
Ĵҽα

ҽԴ˷Ѽ⡣ҽѧģʽֻǿѧأ
۾ֻסҩʲҽԴµ---ҽѧģ
ʽΪΪȫϵͳЭҽԴҪźǣҹ
ҽԴĹȻܹʱҽѧģʽӰ죬˷ʮ
ءһǱҽƥ伫˲һҽԺʿȥ
ΣĸڱһҺܹ淶һҽԺס˰졣ܸп˵йҽ
ʿĹйĻʿĹ̫˷ˣһҽ
5-10ʿϣйһҽһʿ϶ﲻһ
ʿкüʿϣʿ滹лҹֲ
ţ˷ҽԴ˷౦ԴڲԺ
ʦΪסԺĿ˵˾ռߡǱƶȲ
ĳ˵ҽʵյһһλʱ䣬Ժ
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Ҫ30ϵʱܳ˽ⲡˣͲ˽໥εҽϵ
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Ϊ˶࣬¡ϲ˶ֻмʱ䣬ҽͲ˶û
˽Էҽתй̶ˡˣÿζ
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ĹؼغͽȽ---ҽѧģʽΪ
ҽԱֵҽԱĻԡĸ￪ʮ꣬Ϊؼ
ǽ˼ͽũ񡣽ũǲйǧûн
⣬ؼӿйִĽ̡ҽԱԳֵطҽ
ԱĻԺʹž˷ѣҽ

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֮һгҩ ݡҩǴҩ()
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Ʒֹ٣гҩҽҩɹѡƷֹࡣ֮Ǵûܹ
ҽѵķҽҽʦҪʹǲ߱ʹõгҩҽҩβ
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֯ûƼģ󲿷ҩҽʦûܹҽҩʹõѵ
ЩȫҩйصᣬصĺǺܿµġ

ȷռֵص⡣Ŀǰҽʵʩ
ûȷռֵأԴ
ҽѧģʽ˼άӰ̫Ϊ˱ƶȺͻҩܻ⿴Ϊ
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עڡҩ͡ϡʵ---ҽѧģ
ʽ񽡿ỷ෽Ӱ죬Ϲ񽡿ִ
һҪܣһ漰棬ҪڶԴһϵͳ
̡Ҳָȫ淢չĻȻϽ
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̸

֮ʵʩϵľ߿ؿҽѧģʽӰ
졣ý延ҽġΪȫһҽͼ ־
й˽һҽʱ25	ҵǣҽѧģʽ
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 Ⱦ硱ҩϼĳʵ
ǡоƻΪؽѧΪѧ͡Ӳѧҽѧ
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ؼڷҲڣֻйҽԴȱӰ
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Ϊʲôʱҽѧģʽͳйҽ
ʷԴġʱʵҽѧģʽĸת䣿⽫Ǳƪ
ݡ

1 SCIScience Citation Indexѧһ׼
ݿ⣬¼ȫ6000־й74֣18ĳ棩
ĿѧԼĵõݡSCIй컯ǲʵ
26

ο
1. 񣬳ٸߵȽʮ飬Ϸĩ2009225
http://www.infzm.com/content/244672009-5-25.
2. ĸܻ䲡ҽϷĩ2009121
http://zhangming.z.infzm.com/2009/01/21/ 2009-5-25 .
3. λ꣬򣬴ƽࣺ֪ʶӶʮ磬
2009. 1-7
4. ǰҽѧʷ磬200910.
5. Nicholas A. Christakis and James H. Fowler The Spread of 
Obesity in a Large Social Network over 32 Years2007n engl j med 
357;4370-379.
6. Margaret Chan, Influenza A(H1N1): lessons learned and 
preparedness, 
http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/2009/influenza_h1n1_lessons_20090702/en
/index.html,  2009-7-7.
7. Ű칫ң ҹƷشʩ һüH1N1
ع
http://www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles/business/htmlfiles/mohbgt/s3582/2009
07/41627.htm2009-7-7.
8. ƽʼȷʶH1N1Улҽѧ־20098923
1585-1588
9. һĿǵ䣺Ƽ ѧΣ
http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/2003-05/23/content_882897.htm 
2009-7-7 .
10. ߣ:ӳҽвѧרң·磬20043ڣ
http://qkzz.net/Announce/announce.asp?BoardID=16500&ID=126926
2009-7-7 .
11. »¼ұȥ꿹ǵȡشʤ
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2004-03/05/content_1346387.htm
2009-7-7 .
12. Engel GL. The need for a new medical model: a challenge for 
biomedicine, Science, New Series, Vol. 196. No.4286,1977, pp.129-136.
13. Lalonde, M.A. (1974). New Perspectives On The Health Of 
Canadians. A Working Document. Ottawa: Information Canada.
14.  Bunker JP, Frazier HS, Mosteller F. Improving Health:  
Measuring Effects of Medical Care, Milbank Q. 1994.72:225-228.
15.  Evans, R.G. & Stoddart, G.L. (1990). Producing Health, 
Consuming Health Care. Social Science And Medicine 31, 1347C1363.
16. Ժ칫ԺӡҽҩƸĸصʵʩ
20092011֪꣩ͨ
http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2009-04/07/content_1279256.htm 2009-7-7 .
17. 꿣ҩƷвɹ͵ڻҩ
http://news.liao1.com/epaper/hscb/html/2009-04/07/content_104963.htm 
2009-5-25 ʡ
18. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, National Health 
Expenditures, http://www.cms.hhs.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/, 
2009-7-7 . 
19. »2008ֵ300670Ԫ 9.0% 
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2009-01/22/content_10700948.htm
2009-7-7 .
20. йŰ칫ңĴιҪ
http://www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles/business/htmlfiles/mohbgt/s3582/2009
02/39201.htm 2009-7-7 .
21. WHO֯ҩ׼嵥15棨20073)
http://www.who.int/medicines/publications/essentialmedicines/ChineseEM
L15.pdf 2009-5-25 ʡ
22. ϼҩĿ¼Ѱ⣬й˲ţ 20095ڣ26-27.
23. ʳƷҩƷල֣ҩǴҩ(
)
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/health/2006-10/
26/content_5252525.htm 2009-5-25 ʡ
24. л񹲺͹2008йͳ2005ҽʦִҵ
𹹳ɣ

http://www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles/business/htmlfiles/zwgkzt/ptjnj/year
2008/2.htm2009-5-25 ʡ
25. ʱ򡰲ҽʱձ200947
?05.
26. ܴ.йѧSCIȦ, 籨,20051026.


ƽʼ  ЭҽѧԺвѧڡʿʦйҽѧѧԺ
/ЭҽѧԺѧԺԺ,ִ½պй
Ӧϵʵо
ʼpumcjesse@yahoo.com.cn

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ϺƾѧУꡰ˫̥̥֡ 

ߣ

ѧ߹עϺƾѧϺ´ѧġ˫̥
ԡйߵӡ200212ڳ¾ԶġDVB׼ȫ
ռΪ˫ֱ̥ϵ˫֮һ 

˫̥ʱҵλ໥ƤȱٿɲԷݵ
£ͳֻõľ棬Ҳ˭ǳϮ߸еԻ󡣡йߵӡ
200212ڳ¾ԶġDVB׼ȫռ֤ꡢ
ն˶ǳϮߣꡢĵԭн900¾Զ
ȫһӦûʵһĿˣ

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ϴѧ봫ѧԺԺڳϮ

ߣhuguangling

ϴѧǧѧҶ˹˵ͳ
ˡѡרҵȻҲĺϴѧ봫ѧԺԺ
ʡЭḱ᳤ʡо᳤ڵĿ
ʧǳڵʦƵġСѧ̲ۡ5
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ĺ5ƪģ𾪵ǣкܶ೭ϮĵطܵϺ
Ժڡ˶ʵ˷˼ҵȺġ

ġйƷƵĿĻ洫ԡ·ġ
ȫµĿĻ洫Ҫ۵ͬдγϮҲ


·飺ȫµĿĻ洫ʦУѧ
20021

1ȫظĻص2ϢܴصĽ3
ԵķҪضԴ

йƷƵĿĻ洫ԡ人ְҵѧԺѧ
20065ڣ

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Ŀڽ,ֽܸڽ3صص߷,ϰ

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ҹó,Ҳһʵۺҵ,
һĲƷ,Ʒ֪Ȳ,ڹࡰMADE IN CHINAĲƷ
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ϵľ



йҲһʵǿ󡢸оҵ,纣롢
ӡѾƷǿ,йĹ洫ȴ⡣йƷ
֪ձ鲻,ࡰMADE IN CHINAĲƷڹζšһĲƷ,
ķ,,ļ۸,ҹ˾ڹϵ


·飺

صصķϰ,ϰһĻļ,Եصľ
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ص㡣



صص߷,ϰ߷һĲ,
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ǹϢ,ѡǡĴڸЧĴϢ,
⡣



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⡣

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ǿԴмȡ,ִȽ,
,һЩĹ湫˾ùŵĻƷΪز,ĹƷ
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Ǵȡ,ִȽ,µ
,崫ͳĻƷΪز,ĹƷش,
ȡõЧ

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ݾ׹湫˾ѡ͵ġй㶫ƶͨŹͨĿʼ(ǣƪ),
ͯϳ̡ɰ,ӡȡ,
صĺͻϴԽĽ,һ,ǣһ塱



ݾ׹湫˾ġй㶫ƶͨŹͨĿʼǣƪ,ͯ
ϳ̡ɰ,йӡȡ
صĺͻ,ԽĽ,һǣһ塣

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ݵӡϮ˵ġȫ򻯱µ޵Ӵý

ߣ

ŴоչñѧӢѧԺ衵
ȫ򻯱µ޵ӴýչĻͨѧ
磬20096£οգʧҶݺѧ̬Ȳ
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ܵӡǣ

һݴ죬ӣ
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     ˵:
     
һݴ죬ӣ

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º̽֡ȫֻѡˣ޹ңм򵥵ķֹо
ȫ򻯵ñӣûۡۺеۣ
νȫΪ򣬶޵ʲôȫԻֲԵ
ͬӰ졣еġչĻչΪһʷ̺״
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̽޵ӴýΪһͬĲ֣綫ǡ
ǡǵȣкιͬص㣬кεԡĻԡƶԻ
ϵϵͱ仯ѡģУйձӡȵķ
Ӱû㹻ķǺСƽƪ¡

˲ǣΡСƪ½ܣ
е˹̹ͼ˹˹̹ȴֲֻᣬûиκ˵
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Цǣ齫ͳϡϡĻ϶ŷ޹ҵ
ŷ˵ҪԱҲ޹ңרŪһ´ߵı׼
Ϊؿŷǣ޹ҡô˹ŷǴ½ǷҲ
أ

ֻǿϧƽڵƪˣҪĺ౶һ
һκָⱾطд˼뻹һչˣΪ
Ҫż棬󵼶ߣ˷ѾѣЦأ

سϮƴգѧ˵

˵޵Ļôȫ鴥ĿĵԳϮͻ
ѧߵĵߣ˿ǡ

1)͵ټ١Ϊ

һµ5-6ҳ,и6700ֵĴΣעˡȫ򻯱
ĿĻ-ӡȵӴýǨо¼ơӡȵӡһ飬û
ҳ롣ȶԣһȫͬݣߵһ
ӡȵӡ297-298ҳעΪ粿һļ ڵڶ
õһʱ򣬹ȥԭĳѹ粿ļԼԭ

⣬ֿһߵһ顶ӡȵӡѧҲܶ࣬
296-298ҳԼ23000֣ԭⲻĳԡ粿һļ
ֻ˵ǹ粿վûиַͼڣֳΣ
ȫһע͡ ô֡ûšûидһΪ
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ʵϣñ˵ĳɹʹ˳Ҳ㳭ϮΪ
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ҪôվӡҪôֻһͳվĵַͼ
ʱ䡣

֤ڶµڣҳʼĶԼ־ΪϮûע͡ʵʾ
й⽻վhttp://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_21/
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Уһ¿ʼǰֱӳûšûидֻһ
ͳעͣٶվһµڣҳ̨ĶΣֻ
һעͣhttp://www.cctv.com/default.shtmlԺȫǣ
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˼ǣߴκ˶ڻϴġά
ٿơݣժ⽻ٶȵվϵݣʤ
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P2 12ΣԼ200֣ע⡣֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/61891.htm#3_1ߵļڣ2009-7-6
ͬ
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P3 6ΣԼ350֣ĩע2ΪַϢռľ
P4 3ΣԼ370֣ĩע1Ϊܾվ޾ַ

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1. P7 1-3ΣԼ570֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_21/2009-7-6Ͱ
Ȱٿվhttp://baike.baidu.com/view/1931709.htm
http://baike.baidu.com/view/19558.htm2009-7-6
ɹ񹲺͹ӷչʷظ
P7 1ΣԼ200֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/19558.htm2009-7-6
P8 2ΣԼ170֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/19558.htm2009-7-6
P8 4ΣԼ340֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
P9 1ΣԼ670֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľڣҳ




P11 12ΣԼ100֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_7/2009-7-6Ͱ
Ȱٿվhttp://baike.baidu.com/view/6395.htm2009-7-6
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1. P17 1-4ΣԼ400֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_12/2009-7-6Ͱ
Ȱٿվhttp://baike.baidu.com/view/3299.htm2009-7-6
ӷչʷظ
P18 5ΣԼ470֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
P19 1ע2Լ170֣ڶע34Լ130֣Ϊάٿַ
Ϣռľ

ձ

P22 1-3ΣԼ200֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_25/2009-7-6
P22 4ΣԼ200֣ĩע1ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
ձӷչʷظ
P23 1ΣԼ400֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_25/2009-7-6
P24 2ע3Լ200֣ΪάٿַϢռľ
P25 1ΣԼ270֣ĩע12ΣԼ280֣ĩע23ΣԼ280
֣ĩע34ΣԼ240֣ĩע4ΪάٿַϢռ

P26 1ע1Լ240֣2ע2Լ200֣Ϊάٿַ
Ϣռľ

ڶ 

ɱ
 
1. P3012ΣԼ320֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_9/2009-7-6

Խ

1. P351ΣԼ350֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_45/2009-7-6
Խϵӷչʷظ
P35 3ΣԼ170֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľ
P36 2ע1Լ270֣ΪַϢռľ



1. P40 12ΣԼ400֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_17/2009-7-6
εӷչʷظ
P41 һע1Լ270֣ΪַϢռľڣҳҲ

P42 һΣԼ90֣ĩע1Ϊزƣ޾ַϢռ

P42 ڶע2Լ170֣ΪַϢռľڣҳҲ


կ

1. P46 1ΣԼ190֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_14/2009-7-6



P50 1ΣԼ200֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_23/2009-7-6
P50 2ΣԼ140֣ע⣬֤ժԡĻṹص㡷
ءݺᡷ200203ڣ

ʮһ ̩

1. P53 1ΣԼ240֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_30/2009-7-6

ʮ 

1. P58 1βݣԼ80֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_20/2009-7-6
2.  P58 1ע1Լ210֣ΪַϢռľ
ǵӷչʷظ
P59 2ΣԼ440֣ĩע4ΪάٿַϢռľ

ʮ 

P63 12ΣԼ340֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_33/2009-7-6ά
ٿվ
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E6%96%87%E8%8E%B1&variant
=zh-cn2009-7-6

ʮ ¼

P66 1ΣԼ420֣ע⣬֤Ѻ
http://travel.sohu.com/20060228/n242060277.shtml2009-7-6
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1. P67 2ע1Լ60֣ΪַϢռľ

ʮ ӡ

P70 1ΣԼ100֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_43/2009-7-6
P70 2ΣԼ170֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľڣҳ
ѱɾ
P70 34ΣԼ160֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_43/2009-7-6
ӡǵӷչʷظ
P72 1ΣԼ400֣ĩע1Ϊάٿַ3ΣԼ100֣ĩע2
ΪַϢռľ

 

ʮ Ჴ

P78 1ΣԼ200֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_24/2009-7-7
P78 2ΣԼ170֣ĩע1Ϊ»ַϢռľ
Ჴӷչʷظ
P80 1ΣԼ140֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ

ʮ 

P81 1ΣԼ200֣ĩע1Ϊ»ַϢռľ
P81 2ΣԼ60֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7805.htm2009-7-7
P81 3ΣԼ70֣ע⣬֤»
http://news.xinhuanet.com/travel/2008-07/22/content_8743750.htm
2009-7-7

ʮ ϼ

P85 1-3ΣԼ540֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_22/2009-7-7

ʮ ӡ

P91 1ΣԼ300֣ĩע1Ϊ»ַϢռľ
һӡȵӷչʷظ
P92 2ע2Լ8֣4ע4Լ160֣Ϊȫ򻯱µĿĻ
ӡȵӴýǨо޾ҳ
P93 1ע1Լ110֣ΪӡȵַϢռľڣҳ
ʾ
P94 3ע1Լ50֣Ϊȫ򻯱µĿĻӡȵӴýǨ
о޾ҳ
P95 1ע2Լ230֣Ϊȫ򻯱µĿĻӡȵӴý
Ǩо޾ҳ
P96 1ΣԼ200֣ĩע1Ϊȫ򻯱µĿĻӡȵӴ
ýǨо޾ҳ

ڶʮ ͻ˹̹

P97 1ΣԼ200֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_3/2009-7-7
P97 2ΣԼ260֣ע⣬֤»
http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-06/18/content_445513.htm
2009-7-7
ͻ˹̹ӷչʷظ
P98 3ע1Լ240֣ΪַϢռľ
P99 2ע1Լ370֣ΪַϢռľ
P101 1ע1Լ20֣ΪάٿַϢռľ
P101 2ע2Լ560֣Ϊȫ򻯱µĿĻӡȵӴý
Ǩо޾ҳ

ڶʮһ ˹

P103 2ΣԼ320֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_28/2009-7-7
˹ӷչʷظ
P105 3ΣԼ270֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľڣҳ
Ҳ
P106 3ע3Լ60֣ΪַϢռľڣҳҲ

P107 2ע1Լ160֣Ϊȫ򻯱µĿĻӡȵӴý
Ǩо޾ҳ

ڶʮ 

P108 1ΣԼ190֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_19/2009-7-7
P108 2ΣԼ300֣ĩע1Ϊ»ַϢռľ
ӷչʷظ
P109 3ΣԼ440֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľ
P110 1ΣԼ250֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľڣҳ


Ĳ 
޼˹˹̹˹̹ݣҲûκν

ڶʮ ˹̹

P114 1ΣԼ150֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/2690.htm
http://baike.baidu.com/view/1936716.html?fromTaglist2009-7-7
P114 2ΣԼ330֣ĩע1ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P114 3ΣԼ200֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/2690.htm#32009-7-7
P114 4ΣԼ120֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_11/2009-7-7

ڶʮ ˹̹
P119 12ΣԼ580֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7570.htm2009-7-7
P119 3ΣԼ170֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_29/2009-7-7
˹ӷչʷظ
P121 1ע1Լ230֣ΪַϢռľڣҳҲ

P121 2ע2Լ60֣ΪάٿַϢռľ
ȫ򻯱µ˹̹Ļ
P122 4ΣԼ130֣ĩע3ΪַϢռľڣҳ
Ҳ

ڶʮ ȱ˹̹

P124 1ΣԼ160֣ע⣬֤»
http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-06/18/content_445959.htm
2009-7-7
P124 2ΣԼ160֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7899.htm2009-7-7
P124 3ΣԼ150֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_34/2009-7-7
P124 4ΣԼ240֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_34/2009-7-7
ȱ˹̹ӷչʷظ
P125 1ΣԼ180֣ע⣬֤»
http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-06/18/content_445959.htm
2009-7-7
P126 1ΣԼ200֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľ
P127 1ΣԼ330֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľڣҳ
Ҳ

岿 

ڶʮ 

P130 1-5ΣԼ1000֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206/2009-7-9
ӷչʷظ
P132 3ΣԼ230֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľڣҳ
Ҳ

ڶʮ 

P135 12ΣԼ440֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_39/2009-7-9
P135 3ΣԼ130֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7692.htm2009-7-9
˵ӷչʷظ
P136 5ΣԼ180֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
P137 2ΣԼ250֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
P137 4ΣԼ320֣ĩע2ΪַϢռľڣҳ
Ҳ

ڶʮ 

P141 1ΣԼ650֣ĩע1ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P141 2ΣԼ350֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/4286.htm2009-7-9
P142 2ΣԼ200֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/4286.htm2009-7-9
P142 3ΣԼ170֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_40/2009-7-9
ʵӷչʷظ
P142 6ע1Լ180֣ΪַϢռľ
P143 2ΣԼ500֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľ

ڶʮ 

P146 1ΣԼ160֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7851.htm2009-7-9
P146 2ΣԼ340֣ע⣬֤άٿվ
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E5%8F%99%E5%88%A9%E4%BA%9
A&variant=zh-cn2009-7-9
P146 3ΣԼ160֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
ǵӷչʷظ
P147 3ΣԼ140֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
P148 1ΣԼ580֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľڣҳ
Ҳ

ʮ Լ

P150 1ΣԼ130֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7487.htm2009-7-9
P150  2ΣԼ320֣ĩע1ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P1503ΣԼ140֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_44/2009-7-9
P150 4ΣԼ130֣ĩע2ΪַϢռľڣҳ
ʾ
Լӷչʷظ
1.  P152 1ע1300֣ΪַϢռľڣҳ޷
ʾ

ʮһ 

P155 1ΣԼ60֣ע⣬֤άٿվ
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E9%BB%8E%E5%B7%B4%E5%AB%A
9&variant=zh-cn2009-7-9
P155 2ΣԼ300֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
P155 3ΣԼ160֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_18/2009-7-9
P155 4ΣԼ370֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_18/2009-7-9
۵ӷչʷظ
P157 1ΣԼ300֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
P157 2ΣԼ370֣ĩע2ΪַϢռľڣҳ
Ҳ
P157 3ΣԼ400֣ĩע3ΪַϢռľڣҳ
Ҳ
P158 1ΣԼ500֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľڣҳ
Ҳ
P158 2ΣԼ140֣ĩע2ΪַϢռľ
P158 3ΣԼ440֣ĩע3ΪַϢռľ
P159 1ΣԼ750֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľ

ʮ ɫ

P162 1ΣԼ130֣ע⣬֤άٿվ
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E4%BB%A5%E8%89%B2%E5%88%9
7&variant=zh-cn2009-7-9
P162 2ΣԼ400֣ע⣬֤άٿվ
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E4%BB%A5%E8%89%B2%E5%88%9
7&variant=zh-cn2009-7-9
P162 3ע1Լ170֣ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P162 4ΣԼ170֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_41/2009-7-9
P163 2ΣԼ210֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7835.htm2009-7-9
ɫеӷչʷظ
P164 1ΣԼ470֣ĩע12ΣԼ270֣ĩע23ΣԼ
140֣ĩע3ΪάٿַϢռľ

ʮ ˹̹

P168 1ΣԼ40֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7387.htm2009-7-9
P168 2ΣԼ280֣ĩע1ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P168-1693-6ΣԼ820֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_4/2009-7-9
˹̹ӷչʷظ
P169 5ΣԼ220֣ע1ΪַϢռľ
P170 2ע1Լ70֣ΪַϢռľڣҳҲ

P170 2ע2Լ35֣ΪάٿַϢռľ

ڶʮ ɳذ

P175 1-3ΣԼ780֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/6954.htm2009-7-9
ɳذӷչʷظ
P176 6ΣԼ270֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
P177 1ΣԼ160֣ĩע12ΣԼ270֣ĩע2Ϊάٿ
ַϢռľ
P178 1ΣԼ350֣ĩע12ΣԼ170֣ĩע2Ϊάٿ
ַϢռľ

ʮ 

P182 12ΣԼ540֣ע⣬֤άٿվ
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E5%8D%A1%E5%A1%94%E5%B0%9
4&variant=zh-cn2009-7-9
P183 1ΣԼ300֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľڣ
֤1Ҳв԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7129.htm2009-7-9
P183 2ΣԼ140֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/7129.htm2009-7-9
P183 3ΣԼ160֣ע⣬֤άٿվ
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E5%8D%A1%E5%A1%94%E5%B0%9
4&variant=zh-cn2009-7-9
ӷչʷظ
P185 1ע1Լ100֣ΪַϢռľڣҳҲ

P185 3ΣԼ170֣ĩע24ΣԼ350֣ĩע3Ϊάٿ
ַϢռľ
P186 1ΣԼ340֣ĩע12ΣԼ150֣ĩע2Ϊάٿ
ַϢռľ

ʮ 

P190 2ΣԼ350֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ
P190 3ΣԼ100֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_16/2009-7-9
P190 4ΣԼ100֣ĩע2ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P190 5ΣԼ200֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_16/2009-7-9
صӷչʷظ
P192 2ΣԼ320֣ĩע1ΪַϢռľ

ʮ 

P196 12ΣԼ270֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/3854.htm2009-7-9
P196 3ע1ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P196-197 45ΣԼ350֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_47/2009-7-9
ӷչʷظ
P198 1ΣԼ320֣ĩע12ΣԼ150֣ĩע23ΣԼ
200֣ĩע34ΣԼ110֣ĩע4ΪάٿַϢ
ľ
P199 1ΣԼ370֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ

ʮ ³

P202 1ΣԼ100֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/2665.htm2009-7-9
P202 2ΣԼ460֣עⲻ֤󲿷԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/2665.htm2009-7-9
P202 3ΣԼ170֣ĩע2ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P202 4ΣԼ120֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/2665.htm2009-7-9
³ǵӷչʷظ
P203 4ΣԼ320֣ĩע2ΪάٿַϢռľ
P204 2ע1Լ440֣ΪַϢռľ

ʮ 

P207 1ΣԼ70֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/2654.htm2009-7-9
P207 2ΣԼ600֣ĩע1ΪٶȰٿַϢռľڣ
֤עⲻöβҲάٿվ
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E4%BA%9A%E7%BE%8E%E5%B0%B
C%E4%BA%9A&variant=zh-cn2009-7-9
P207 3ΣԼ110֣ע⣬֤⽻վ
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/gjhdq/gj/yz/1206_37/2009-7-9
ǵӷչʷظ
P209 2ע2Լ100֣2ע3Լ350֣Ϊͬһַ
Ϣռľ

ʮ ݽ

P213 12ΣԼ400֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/2641.htm2009-7-9
P213 3ΣԼ240֣ע⣬֤󲿷԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/2641.htm2009-7-9
ݽӷչʷظ
P214 1ΣԼ440֣ĩע1ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P214 3ע3Լ15֣ΪάٿַϢռľ

ʮһ 

P218 1ΣԼ200֣ĩע1ΪٶȰٿַϢռľ
P218 23ΣԼ1000֣ע⣬֤԰ٶȰٿվ
http://baike.baidu.com/view/6785.htm2009-7-9
ӷչʷظ
P221 6ΣԼ100֣ĩע110ΣԼ120֣ĩע2Ϊάٿ
ַϢռľ
P222 1ΣԼ300֣ĩע1ΪάٿַϢռľ

ᡡ
ȫ֮ΪϮԼ20֣ǵ졢վݵĴ
ԣࡱ㲻ϣѧר

    20091024

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

Уʦġ˼ά

ߣVictor

˿ϣһλΪУʦߣһƪҪ
˼ά
http://www.xys.org/xys/ebooks/others/science/dajia10/zheda16.txt
̸󺣹Ϳʿɱ⡣ʵ˲ˬĲ֮

ΪУʦ˼άվڹڹꡰĽǶȣ
ڸУʦһˮ۵㲻ŵ˵ͺǣ㺣ôõ
ˣ¥ǹڵʦǻ˶ˣ鶼ˣ޶
е˻סͲ¥᣻ȴһһλ֪㡣ץѧ
ץĿղŸУòײŷƪģôõʵ
ôľѣһSCI㻹óǱȣĿְ
ƣƽ˲뵽ƲﾭСǿƬΡ

ޣʵڸ㲻Ǵĸ˼άκѡ
Ծ϶Լ⡣Уʦܽԭ
ΪУĽѧһѺ

رǵڶ

2ҪʶԼĹסڿٷչȫ繫ϣλ㺣
ȻҲǣȡҪʹʱҲӦ÷˼һ 
£㡱Ϊ˶Ĺף˵ʵڵķչҪǹ鹦ڹ
ֵܽáڹ˶Ҹ󣬻ȥȴҪϱΪ˴ƴ 
ͬ¸õ㡱ѵøڵͬ´ӽ˻Ҫס
ᣬٺͲ¥һһڵĸƷȴһλҪס 
úãõö࣬òƽ

ȥһλӦƸְλԼʲôʲôϵнˮĶٹ
Ӧǹĸߵ͡仰˵ҪںԺٹס
ǰΪٳ˶ٿ࣬ס˶Ͳ¥˵ǻѴͶԹ
Ĺ׳Ϲϵ߼ĳУҪDСûΪڵķ
չɶף˼ʮʱ˹ڻס
Ͳ¥Ŷȥ

ƪҿĲǹڵġУʦҵˮƽ͹̬
ĺͷʡҲǶԹڽƺѧĲ͹Ժ
ʡ ʧ֮־ñҪ֪ƽǺĴסɳ
Ҳð൱ǰοպǴҶ˭ָ
ҡ

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ۺ˵ѹ

ߣDW

˹ںͿʿļƪ£Ϊһ˲ŵȥеϧͬʱ
ظеĸ߷á

ڹߵķͳΪй˿ܶȴϣ
ȱ磬йȣͬ˿ȴ


ʵ˵ͨס㡣ǵס
ԺӺͳ⣬µЧһ㡣ڴ󲿷סլ
ģʮϡ㣬ס屶ȫ
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Ŷԣλۺλʵıң
߷(Source: NAR, Census Bureau, Federal Reserve))

ڵĸ߷ۺʻԸְ˲˾޴ѹȻ
˵ķչվסǻ롣

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ΪϣҲʧпԺоԺ

ߣ

˵пԺоԺר⽲ѧ ѧ
Ŀں֪ܶѧģǴ󲿷ֿĶ
ժ¼Һṩ¼йѧԺоԺĽһ
ֱ𾴡ηѧΪԭû߽ȻҲû׶
ֳźϲο¼Ҳ
ҵԸ

Ϲ̳鿴ѶԴ˴νۣԼһֱҲܹĵ
⡪йĿлоЩ˻һЩˡһ
һ죬㡰¢ϡĽ죬ǻ·Ҵ2004
ʼע˿˽⡰˴աڹڵѧܣԼ
ƱҵʱȹֵսľҶȻƱҵ
ͱҵǺܸߣԼݣһ
һȥģñ˵ҲǶдķǳ㡣
Ϊ߽ʥѧо֮ŵʦǽҹע˿ʦⷽ
ҪϸҲʹ޳Ϯ۷пԺоԺģ
˵һ仰ΪϣҲʧ֪Ƿ
ʶ仰ѧٷȫĨɷʶ
һ㣬ҪˡƳɰܣƵʧʹһִ
ȻܾĬɹ󣬵ǲò˵仰̫ܱˣ仹ֻ
һССоȻδκιףȻԸţҹѧ
Զ˵ҩɾȣţʹǲõĽջһı
ַģʹǺܾԺ飬ҲֵڴŬ
˲ΪΪϣҲʧ仰Ƿ
ص㣬Ҳܱʣǹѧӻ֪˵ǰ
ѧڵ⣬Է쵼ѧٹ˸ֵ˽⣬
ҲѧԼϲҪѧٺ͸ܵΪǸ
δѧõ˴ԤɣӦóڹڿе״
ʷѵͲйбκϣ𣿲֪ûͬѧ
⡣

Ŀǰһڶ˶ʿоٱҵǰеӱ
˼ǴоԼġ뷨ǱȽ϶ģҲϲ
㣬֡оˣԼĵʦ
רĸѧˣԼӰȽϴԽ㰮Ͽˣмȥ
뷨ǣҲһֱڹע˿עڵĿж̬⼸ֵѧ
ٺѧǰԼԼΧĺܶർʦĿ
ѵķԼҲţԼߣ
Լϻʱˡ֪롣Ǵ
ĿⶼǱôȥǵоӾСʡһ
ǮꣻԶԣηηβǲǿԼ
ҪҪ˲Ժô죬¥ĲʿˡǺ꣬
Щô죿ҪôҸţXĴϰȹϵУ
νġѧŶӡҺҲǶ
ǻѪ˵㡰롱ҿǲҪĺáԣҵʾǣ
ǵҪҪٸУҪҪйУе·ôߣִ
ֵ꣬˶ʿʿļ˻ҪҪȥôߣǺ͡ǡͬ
ۡһǶףҪĻǿĿǰıҵ
⣬ûƼͱˣ̸ʲôպڷɡڿڵѧ
״һ˿ǺܶǺͿ־塣ҲϣҲ
ʧҵԸŲõĽйѧлԽԽáһҪ˵
·ںηʷһ˵Ŀе·ںηҲ
пԺоԺеǾ仰ΪϣҲʧһ
ͺͲɣ

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ѧ淶ܷ

ߣ
http://blog.sina.com.cn/sunicp1211

оԺĽ˵һС͵İټҽ̳רҵ֪ʿ
˵һΡоԺֱʮʮźŲŵһȥμһν

20091019գ7ڽѧ¥һ-һΪѧ
ٶʿķҪһ룬˽ңڶοһ
Ϊĳ֮ǰһڼǰͳƻһڿοġ

ﲻ200λˣԴ
ѧ׳۵ĳΪԾɼҶԷӵȤ

7֣Ϊ·϶³ٵķӽ˽ҡ֮ǰоԺ
ѧڲͣѭƬڳͬѧԹصе
Ҳŷӵ볡ʧӰ󣬽ʼ

ʮʵûй໪Ĵ壬ЩĿĵĿٵ
ݣڳڶ硣ΪʲôйĿлһֵ
˼Ŀ

ڷıУϵѧУУԺԺʿµڽʦʿ
Щ޳ܵļðĿݣЩոսӴвǻ
˵޷̵ġŭͬʱҲǵΪԼôһ
ƭѧ֮жеɱЩеЩ
ҲѧӦɾʥ֮УǺЩΪҹ
ѧҵױһѧأ

и˿ǸԼټලЩа·ĿѧҵĵطȺ
ڵ۾ǲɳӵģκһֻҪǲƽϵ±׼ģ˿
ϧһվ޷ڹ㣬Щƾ޵ݻóɾ͵ǲ
һΣĵطڵģֱɵƻֶξ
еվνаʤ֪ǱϾ
˿ǿĴšţһֻǿѧļ
ǹҵĿѧǱضܹԼģΣȷ
ݻرңΪҽӴѧУڵĵʦ
оԺڿνǣʮϽģԿѧʮȰˣ
ԼȫѪͶ뵽˹ҵĿƼУЩôΪһ
˽ҪűһЩĲأ

Ҫлӣ˿ѧĺȺ֮ĿЩò
Ȼα޴Σ˿еĻǽһҪϸѧ淶
öκεԽͬʱҲҪЩСΣǡ

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ҩ硱áĴ

ߣForest

1026šҩ硱áΪҩ磬֪
ѯҩԤ⣬Ĵ°ǰù
нίǶҩԤ˼ҵĸǷΧС
һǧ˵Ĺ˾Ҳҩ

񻹲ǹ˾ȫ棬ҹ˾ʼﻹᵽ
ýɣ

========================================

λͬ£

ӱһ壬ÿ200 з1¥Dǰ̨ӦԤв
ӭá

䷽5ˡ5ˡ3ˡ

ҩע

1ˡͯӦҽʦָ·á

2Լ߼Ůڡãиá

3Ԥðҩ˳ڷãһ35졣

4ڼвʸоߣӦֹͣҩʱѯҽʦ

5ҩйʷ߽ãá

ףҽƽ

QD REGS

20091026

=================================

˾Ĳˮһ¥ſڣ鷳ҵһᣬûһ
ͬ¥ϡǸǼϸӺȵͦ𾢣
һζô˵ΣǺö

˵ҹ˾Ԥȡɽʡȥһ£Ȼ
ͷļٽʡģкܶ࣬㶫ʡɽʡ
ķӶ̫һҲѹ֣Ȿ쳯ҽʱ
أˡɫ

ɽʡĺͷļ

ɽʡļ

³з20098

ӡɽʡH1N1ҽҩ

Ԥ2009＾棩֪ͨ

֣ҵʡҽƻ

ΪһüH1N1Ԥַҽҩɫƣֹ
＾ɢ＾ص㣬֯רƶˡɽʡ
H1N1ҽҩԤ2009＾棩ӡǡλҪ
ݵʵʣ֯չԤձԤҩƬ࣬
ʵҩﴢ߼ʱӦ仯

ɽʡH1N1ҽҩԤ2009＾棩

ϣϾʮ

ɽʡH1N1ҽҩԤ

2009＾棩

ΪʡH1N1＾Ԥҽҩɫƣֹ
ɢУȺڽ＾ص㣬ҽʱ
ء˵ԭƶԤ

һԤ

塰а磬֮ʱ＾֮аҹ²ϴ
죬Ӧעʱ

桰ʳнڡ＾аΪӦʳտ˟ʳ
ʵܹʳ֥顢ҡۡ桢ȡʻ
ᳫʳζʳƷҲᳫʳࡣעʳͲ͡

硰гϢҪйɣ˯˳Ӧ֮
ʹչҷ̫֮עʵ塣

 أҪ־泩мɱ˸С
£ҡв־֮ģ׵ң
ȣ֮а飬а롣Ҫſѧ˷־
ƽ̬ѧϰ֪ʶ߶Լʶ

ʳԤ

ʳ嵭ʳζ֮ƷճУһЩ򵥡ζʱ
СҩţԤһ

ź˿ٺ

÷Χߣڸɡ֢ߡ

 100g źϴƤϸ˿ٺ 50g Ƭ˿뿪ˮУ
տĻ尾֭ź˿Ͱٺ˿ãɡ

ʳ÷ÿһٷִʳá

ЧãΣİ

ٺ޲

÷Χߣ롢ʧߡйкȷƢ֤ߡ

޲ʡ׸ 100 Ưϴãٺϡ 30 
ϴС飬ڿˮз޲ʣտĻס
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 100g  50g  20g ˮ500տ
Ļ20ӡ

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÷Χߣ̡ԡ̵丹ơɵȷƢ
֤ߡ

а 60 ܲ 300 С飬ˮ500

ʳ÷ÿһ7Ϣ5ɼá

Чã̵Ʀ͡

עá

Ѽ

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޲ 30 ˽1öź 100 Ѽ 250 


ʳ÷ͣʳ7죬Ϣ5ɼá

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̶ඹС̶áȽⶾ֮Ч

ݩٺϡȾȡãʵʳá

ҽҩԤ

е֮ǰ֮ʣɸݸѡҩ򣨺ͣ


ҩ

1ƽ彡ߣ 12g  10g ޲ 15g ɳ 12g 
ɽ 15g ʲ 6g 

2ƽ:ƽʱƣ̡·ȣð֮ò
ðã 10g  9g  9g ɽҩ 15g ɳ 9g 
Ƥ 9g ˸ʲ 6g 

3̾ߣ 10g ޲ 15g  9g ɳ 12g ޽ 
10g ʲ 6g 

4ͯ޽ 6g Ҷ 6g  6g ɳ 6g ɽ 6g 

󼰷÷ȡҩһɰˮ30ӣ𣨴
տĻС𣩼10ӣͬټһ飬ιҩ֭һ𣬹Լ
3002-3ͺ1Сʱ·ÿһ5ΪһƳ̣ÿһ
ֱ̣λ֯ãɽҩԱ
ӱίʵҽƻռ󷽷ÿ300ң
2-3ηá



1÷һ 5  5  3 

2÷̫Ӳ 6  3  3 

3ͯ÷6-12̫꣩Ӳ 3  3  3 

÷ȡʽྻ֮һˮ뿪ˮݺ󲻾ʱ
ãÿһڼɳڷãλ֯ãɽҩ
Աֱӱòˮ¯ȹˮ豸ݺֱӦ

ҩע

1ˡͯӦҽʦָ·á

2Լ߼Ůڡãиá

3Ԥðҩ˳ڷãһ35졣

4ڼвʸоߣӦֹͣҩʱѯҽʦ

5ҩйʷ߽ãá


ʣ  ҽҩ  Ԥ  ֪ͨ

ɽʡ칫                2009818ӡ

У  ԣ       ӡ             ӡ60

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

㽭ѧУҽԺõҩ硱ʲô

ߣ·

26siyu˵˽㽭ѧΪ˳ַҽҩԤ
еãһЧ飬ȫУʦ彡άУ԰
ȶȫУԱʹõġ硱ٴԼǷãsiyu
ֻṩˡɣշƣһΪҽ²Ĵͳҩɣ
ļӼʵϣҽҲáɣƸðԡԼһЩ
ҽνġѪ֢κһҽڿѧ鷽ɷֺ󣬷ְ
ˡɣɣҶջʲζҩ

ڸôĿǰΪֹûв鵽κмֵٴ鷽ϡ鵽
ҩ硱Ĵ÷ôΪɣҶջ6ˣ3ˡ
ʲ2ˣˮ50030ӣ15Ӻȡ֭ڷÿΣÿ
100Сüһ57졣רһ˵ѧУ
ɰոôãѧְԤáϤʡ״
H1N1йԤҩڡɣշӦȽƽ
Ҳûг֡ǵ䡱ʱƵ󡣡ҩɣշ
ȺԤر׸ȺнӴߡУѧãΪ
÷

㽭ʡӦϵ»˵ǰٴͱĽ
ǰȫЧģԼH1N1Ľ˴
ƶϸķǶԽֵϸҪһвӦмȴ
ʩ

Ѿ˸еıˡ硱㽭ıǡ

ĻǸʲ⣬ڸʲݼ(XYS20090913)

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ΪʲôҽԺҩ

ߣiheaing

ǰʱС˼ηخͼҽԺΪʲôҽԺҩ
֮һר˵ġ

ŶӹҺšǮʱҹ۲һ£󲿷뿪ݸɲר
ֱҩ̨Ҳ룬СǮµ֮һɣʡãݸ
Ҷò˼Ǯ˸оλһãԴϲг

ô˶ڳԡҩͻȻ˵ǴģǲԵġ
Ⱥڲ֪ʲô

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

л·˼ͤĵڰƪͶԸĵĸ˿ 
 
ߣȷ
 
˸ߵĵڰƪ̸˶Ըͤĵڰƪ¼Ƹģ
Ŀ

ill-conditionĴȻճB.J.Hoskins et al (1983)
K.E.Trenberth(1986)ķill-conditionĴǹEP۵ص㡣
ȻͤдġвοHoskinsTrenberthġǸ
ġĲοвûгЩ˵֡Ҫ˵ʱûЩ˵
ģˣҲŸûҪŰѸߵƪļ
HoskinsTrenberthô˵

˵ĵõĹؼʽ60ʽһ2άF
K.E.Trenberth(1986)EʽA123άġE򻯳2άľǸߵ
FȻҪһ任

ڱȽæûʱԸĵƵһһضԱȣҪȤ
ͬK.E.Trenberth(1986)B.J.Hoskins (1983)ϸضԱһ£Ҳ
иķ֡

E-PͨĹ巢չҪǸνill-conditionĴ
ҪB.J.Hoskins et al (1983)K.E.Trenberth(1986)
R.A.Plumb(1985,1986)ɵģķ1990꣬˵дʱûο
ЩߵģôҾֻˣ

ο

Hoskins, B. J., I. N. James, and G. H. White, 1983: The shape, propagation and mean-flow
interaction of large-scale weather system. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1595-1612.
 
Plumb, R. A., 1985: On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J. Atmos.
Sci., 42, 217-229.
 
, 1985: An alternative form of Andrews conservation law for quasi-geostrophic waves
on a steady,nonuniform flow. J.Atmos.Sci., 42, 298-300.
 
, 1986: Three-dimensional propagation of transient quasi-geostrophic eddies and its
relationship with the eddy forcing of the time-mean flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1657-1678.
Takaya, K., and H. Nakamura, 1997: A formulation of a wave-activity flux for stationary
Rossby waves on a zonally varying basic flow. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 2985-2988.

Trenberth, K. E., 1986: An assessment of the impact of transient eddies on the zonal flow
during a blocking episode using localized Eliassen-Palm flux diagnostics. J. Atmos. Sci., 43,
2070-2087.

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

˭оMany is better than all

ߣDavid Ng

һƪӢĵļΪ־ȷ˳ɹ漰ܶѧ
ʽpdfʽأ

http://xys4.dxiong.com/xys/ebooks/others/science/dajia10/zhouzhihua18.pdf
https://xys.c6.ixwebhosting.com/xys/ebooks/others/science/dajia10/zhouzhihua18.pdf

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

־ʵ֮Ҽ

ߣר

һ£˳ڵιڿѧϰˣܵ
ͬУԩң

쿴˴۵ܵļƪġ

1ܵġзӦжΪֳϮòӦָʽ
17-20Ĺֻᡱ10PerroneҲСڹˣ
ָУһܵ׷

2IJCAI01жΪҪݳϮδãҷҪ
IEEEίԱᷴӳģ类жΥ棬ͶȡȨ5Ĵ
ҲIJCAI01רҷֲ˸ģӦϵˣ

3Ϊپϸ壬AIJʱܴ
Perrone£ؽPerroneĹΪԼĹȻӦܵ
ĵĴǸԱⱻȡȨ

Ҳ֪ܵΪηģҵӡܲˣ
ϣƪĲڡ

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

Ͼѧ־¼

ߣִ

Ȼشʣ

1IJCAI01Ľظ114գ61עڣGOOGLEʱ
ˣ15±10£ʵһΪڼкü鶼
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ơмᵽ"ܵĶ"ԼIJCAIϻ
ԼĲϣΪ𣿻ѧϰļɧ
ûйϵġáмҲһ8¿Ļ˵7
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ΪĲҪ վסŵġ1ֲøЧ

2м˵־HansenûPerrone
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зƪˡIJCAI011220ȴƪԵȻ
⡣2ֲøЧ

3ҶڻѧϰȻУӢˮƽм˵
ļȥмɷġǹϵģ롰мϸ
Perrone£6ڵķ֤һĳʶ𣿣Perrone
ʵȽϺרŻ1֤ʶӣڹʽ20⡰мû
飬MBTAĹȻи5ֵķȻЧ

4ܷܶࡰۡʲô֤ݣʵ۵װһ
вڴɽУ

5⣬Ĺؼƹʽ17-20Լ֪ܡһ
͡ˡˡҲԭ򣿰ܵĳƪ۷񣬶20ʽ˵
練ƣһγƪظʱȴҪ˼ʵٱǱҪ

6XC⣬too easy and too sampleA>Bȥ
͡A<=Bıѵȼֽۣˮ⣨ûCET4,Ҳ
ܷۡˣҾͲشˡ

ٸҽ£ݴ鹹漰Ҫе־񣬲Ҫ
ש

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Ҵڴ˵־ȻԺʿβ¶ݣ֮˵
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Ҳˡ֪ܡһ⣺ǰһƪΪβг֤ݣ

֪ܡϼ޻ЦˣƭһMBTAģҲ߳ƭһ
£Ȼĵ6£

İоһͻȻʵ˵ܻǬŲƣ
û޼ɣ

ҵͷһ룬֮Ӧ˵2000еȺڿ
䣬һӣ[Perrone 93]Ӽиȥɴɾ񹦣Ϊα
ɵˣ˽ԴЦƣ˵ִ̫вˣ

Ҳʡİһ⣺Ϊζߣ

İ̾һ˵ҵҲ޲ӢһͶ
ҹ֮ʱԲԴ04꿴־һɷãٲȻ
ԹеоԾӣгĳɼҵʱʹ¾ģ
ϴĸ棬Ҳоˡ˲ʱ䣬ɹȣȴ
ҪĳɹȻԵ...ܲϻ𣿡

ҸİϾȰȻܵĵʹùڶһ
оˣ˼£İһһۣվҪߣЦ
˵Ц¡

ѧһ࣬ʵҿǧ˼ƻеʵٱ־
Ȼϴ󣬸λʲô飿

ҡ֪ܡ°оƱһأеˣ

ƱȻûˣۻҲɢøˣ´ֻҪСܷۡ
ֵûش˵Ц

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

־¼һ

ߣKolmogorov



ã

ǹһͨоߣԻѧϰҲ漰ע
˿й־¼ۣе룬ϣƽ̨


ȣ뻹Ƕ־ڵһʱӦһٱʾǳ͡
ȻܿʦͱʾٶӷıҲǳ⣬
ȷʵʦиҪѧҪǣһ¼УΪһȫ
ߣҶʦһı۽жʵе㲻⡣п
ԡֶйȽϴ۰ɣǴѧ潲ֻɶǷǳ
鰡ûǴĻѧWeilͷǳָGauss
۷ĺܶ๱ײKummerĳɹѣӻкܶࡣǣ
һ֮ԵĻǷȷȻǼʼǵģǷȷҪѧ
۲Сⷽ棬Ҽǵǰһνеһ仰º
ӡ󣬡ѧµĹĳ˵˽Сʦ˵Ҳ
»ᷢǣһ㲻õģֻһλظһڴѧĲ
зͿˣ󷽵ؽ㷨빫Ϲ˼
һ

⣬ȻʦһЩӦΪ֮ͬ顣
ǷܻǶؿ¼أʵϣΪ
һͬУΪһ¼Ҳ¶ڻѧϰļϢ
һЩ⡣˵ЩйȻڸٹо
״̬ձǣҵۺԲʵı´£
СԽȡĶţëг־üֵ֮١ȫ
ʦƩ缯ѧϰȡ˹Ӱĳɼǿһڡ
о뷢չϵģ˭Ҳ޷ֻڱ˿缯ѧ
ϰ֮ڵһһˡ˵ƪĵڵļ򵥱ξ
Ҫ۹׵ĻǵоҲ̫ˡͬأ硰֪ܵˡ
ɵŴ㷨ڴ˴ӦõǷҲǣǿأһ㶼
ʦһļֵʾ֪ˡǣ˵
һõideaѧȺޡƵڼҲǺܳġ
ԣǶ¼ǷԹһоŻƶ
أʦ˿ռ˵ѾȷԼҪоʲô߹ʵ
⵱ȻʮǰǺܴĽǣΪһһ
ģҵȻģҲʦⷽͬУ
ҿڹǱогһһVapnikһ̶
ԵĹʱйѧ

Ϲ۵вָ֮ͬ

(XYS20091027)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

־¼ķ

ߣº



á˿Ϲ־¼۽϶ࡣΪAIһ
оߣڶԱ֮Ϊ¼漰һƭԣ
бҪר׫ʿ塣

Ĺʽ17P&Cĵ6¹ʽǵЧģɱ任󣩣Ȼ
ĻP&Cģʽǹ׵㡣P&CʵûƵֱӸ
һʽ˿ΪP&CĴ3-5µƵʽʵϲȻ, 3-5
⻯˵BEM/GEMģûйֻԭʼBEMģйأ
Ľ˼Ƶ Ѿָʽ17ļǲɽܵģ
ʵϲܸ17ֱѡ硣ˣ˵P&CоMany is 
better than allǿЦģΪûʵõĹmany networksķ
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д֪ܵˡ͡İ  

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İ𡱺֪ܵ͡ˡ©

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