                          ˿µϣ20080614գ

08.06.14, ӡʱҺ˵ձǰԤ
08.06.14, ƾǵԤ
08.06.14, ֺ޹ĵѧ
08.06.14, κӢܡѱУžЩ˵ļϢ
08.06.14, Ĵܲ޳֮ͽ
08.06.14, Ѱܣǽʦ񡪡Ҳ۷ܡ
08.06.14, ½ʱ˿̣ѡҡʷ
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08.06.14, ˵ӡĽѧ̬ȡ
08.06.14, ǰ¶˿ϵһСᡷ

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                        ӡ

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޹ĵѧ

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http://www.sciencenet.cn/blog/user_content.aspx?id=28786

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ܸͶһ㣬ͬûй硣

ߵλѧ뷢չ (SciDev.Net)ûһԴӢ
Ȼ־ıչйҿƼʹٽչйҿѧվ

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ѱУžЩ˵ļϢ

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ܲ޳֮ͽ

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չԭ򣬷֯ѧǷϵµģԼ߲
ѧȻǲµġ

ڷѧһʱͶһĲһĺġ
ϻԴ˵ջֻзⳡǻʵġ

ĲҲһϷϷۣGame theoryۣԷ

ĲһǷܣһǴȻȻںӮֻ
ܵӮ͹ˡ

ٶϷʵʿԲȡ֡սԡ

AսԣܣǷʵʲȡսԣ

BսԣһܣȻѧһܣAսʧһ
ӵʱ䡣

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ܣȷϽ֮ܣʧ20룬ȵȡּ򻯲Ӱ
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Ǿ߲ҪԲ۵֪ʶΪǰᣬΪѧо
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㡣Ը۵ԳΪĴʦ֡ھ
ҪȡڱǷ㹻

ıȽϿܸ˵⣺ڷܵѧУ˵λѧ
Ľʦ3ˣҹƵʱϿεʦ6ˣҲ˵ڹ
ʱߵ˴ƽˮ׼£ܵģ
һļһ

ľֵķܱȽϸӣһ䶨ٴĶͽҲ֪Լ
ӮºǲҪµġ

ܹ¶վڲٳʱʱŶϱ仯ӿʼ
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ںͱѧ˽ʱżһۣһж÷ľ
ⳡˣӡöˡʧܲǰ
ѣǰѡսʱľߴعĿ֮µģ
˽ʵ߷޴

ġ޳ܡͼˡô
ôô˵ȫԡԼ·ȥ˵ɡݵĻ
صıڿϿ̸ʱĲмĿ⣬Ӷ
żɡ޳ηӸôôʱջĥ
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Ƿܲ޳ܡֹ޳ܡǸҪӵˡ
Ϊ֮ӣ̱ˣرѧ˿
ӺͶκλɡʼ˴ģΣػŤתѧ
еӡ󣬰ԼһǵĿһǿߣǸǿߣ
Ҳȿõöࡣ

իĶŮĻƤڸ䱾Ŀ֮෴
ʹáͷϳǣϳ̡ħڸڶӦԷ
ܡҲ֮áʵ֪ܡαӵġСˡ
Ƥڸųʧ̬ڽ߷ĵܡ

ϳĻҵ˸񣬵ҵ̡
ǵġֵ֮һϾ˻˵жϿʮӶʮ
̲пҪһˡԷܶԡᡱ͡áҪġ
ְصĲҡ͵ϵĲ塱֮Լ϶ĸ׵ĲТճ
˶Դͳµȫ淴ѡצ̬ʵΪڸĲ
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ҲáӲѱ߲ݡؾǸĶѧ
ѧУУЩʳĸ滷ϵɵġ
Щۿ̬ܳˣצЧʵ䷴

ôǡʵ֪ܡǡǡ෴ǡ֪ܶʵ
ΪҪӶϧѾɻıһѻԡ

ǡСˡǡǡ෴ǸħƤġαСˡ


(XYS20080614)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(xys.dropin.org)(xys-reader.org)

ܣǽʦ񡪡Ҳ۷

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£ҲֻƬ̵ļԺǳõȴһģ֪λ
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зݣϸĶṩϣȴܸе
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ܣܣܣЩ١ġʦ
ǵý壬ıī汨һУ
ѧǶżеָӳ졣ܵķ˼УҲΪźΪΨ
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УҲ˵ʦǸôͷܰȻѧܣõѡ񰡣û
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ܵѴһѵõ棬ټϻǰ
ӡ˵ܣͲܣӲǶڽȵų޷֤
ġ١ѧ˰ȫشܣԼƾһ
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ӦԵȱǿԭ¼ߵ֪й۹Ƶú
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ǶԹ涨ҲԼ̫ߵֻҪعһ˵Ļصˣ
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ҲڻԱϣپһӣδһɻɻ
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ͼͼͼǴҶϰ򼪱ͼ11ĺӱ3
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(XYS20080614)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(xys.dropin.org)(xys-reader.org)

ʱ˿̣ѡҡʷ

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˽һ㣬˫ػ4ӵ̷ǧʦ13ѧ
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ȷûзҲ˵Щ©зǰ
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ͷһ̣ͷȥպѪûȥβҴʱ˿̹Ȼ
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ŵͷϣʵǷЩǺǵѪ

˵ºⲻ뿪ʱصͱڲƽʱڱУ԰
ĳֻĻ᳡ʲôӦõȨɣô˵У
άÿһ˵ɺȨڡǹֵꡱĵһߣʤܾ
˲ġߡϣ̸͵ô͵Ϊ뿪
ʱص㱳ǾͲܵóӦܵóһµĽۡЩý
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òƹʵʸھֵһϵǸֱǣ
ôҺǵΪ

ΪˣҵĽ۾ǣһؼʱ̣˱ӵġҡ뱻
ʷĳ

(XYS20080614)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(xys.dropin.org)(xys-reader.org)

ҡֵһһϯ̸۹ۺ

ߣ2008 

һһϯ̸Ŀ˷Լȼα͡š
չ磬ú˼̲סлҪ˵

һǲǿԭµģ

˴Т˵ıȽпϣ޿ɺǣΪ
ʦӦܡӦУС

Ӧô˵Լ˵һͷһƬհף
ܡָΪǸųģεˣΪʱ
˭пܻңıܾٶǲԭµģºŲǵ
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ġ±׼˭ƶģ

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УΪûй涨ʦܡǡǰؽʦ䷢
飺

ͶƱ11102
ʣʦӦ11.0%1223Ʊ
ʣ34.0%3791Ʊ
쵼Ӧ54.0%6088Ʊ
ͶƱֹʱ䣺2008-06-042008-06-11

ǲûڴʦʥ涨Ҳǲ޳ɵġǣ
ʦӦ֯ѧ룬Ρ

ˡҵĵǸӲܣ

ңҪ˵ǣҵʱǱܵģعͷط
ְҵûȥѧҶѧ˵һ
˵ԲΪʲôأղһȥҲҵͬ۹˵˵Ҫû£
ǳһҲã޵òãѧпܻ
񡣵Ȼ˸δѡ񣬵ǲôпʹǷ
ӦʱԵøǵһ㡣ڶ㣬ҾôҵĵΪҲ
¸ҡϣҿԳΪһǿ߿ʱûгΪǵ
ǵڶҪǸġһȥҵۣҲ˵
ְҵô涨ĵһӦ뵽ѧٶѧİ
ҸѧҲ˵Ҳ˵Ҫ֣ҵѧǸ

ңڶҪǸǣƪдҲڣ
ѧУУѹҳеѹҪʾǸ
ܹ۵ȷҸò¼ƪµе
˺һЩ˵УұʾǸΪҷۣԼҵĹ۵
Ǹлл

αУѧУУǱȽǵģҲǾм
ݲģһԭ·ҵļѧÿݣҲǱȽǵġ
ԷǸľٶҪ϶ġǣҶԼ˵Ĺ۵ܲ
ϴҪС

(XYS20080614)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(xys.dropin.org)(xys-reader.org)

Ϊʲôùܡ

Ф

˱ȵġΪʲôԡܡΪЩ˵ֵ
ȶ

ʱݷʦ˵һƬհףܵܳңȥŷ
ûѧʱΪʲôᡰһƬհסװ˽ʦӦ
θкǻۣ룬Ϊȫ֪ڷʱӦξٶ
Ϊʲô֪ξٶΪѧУֺͽûѧδ
ѵΪһ˵˽ʦȻȻܹȷ
ԣ

ڵǰʦ֪ʶܲѧǸࡣ룬
ʦʱŴԭδѧһѷܳȥ¶˱Ľ
ˣԼ𣬱Ȼ᲻÷ʦԼûֹ
ѧܳȥʧְûдֺ֪ʶûܹѵûнйϰ
ʱֻƾӦʦıǰȾܣҲ
ѧǻһȾܵķӦȻйزŶԷʦйӦ
Խѵ˺Ͷϰʦûа涨Ҫȥǿ
ָʧְְءȻԲ

ͻֺǵıܷӦǲͬģΪ˵ͬϤ
λĸεʱܵķӦӳ⣬Ϸӻ
ڣȥңȴˡǿһЩˣΣʱ̺ңð
ȥˡǲָλĸ׶ܳǲԼĺӣ
ܵķӦЩð˺ӵĿѾľ磬Ҳ
ܽǳһĸԱܣǵԡԼҲΪ
Ǹոϵʱһûκβ졣ǣ
ǽܽѧϰ֮󣬱˸ڶ˼롢ĻΪ
ѧϰù淶ȡܵıȻȵʦһ֪
ûн̹ĶȥҪѧ½̹Ķûгֵĸϰϰ
Ҳ޷ȥѧûдԡ֪ʶʱʦ󣬷
񣬵һɲֻһڵ֪֮ıܵˣ


ڱǴʦ˵ĸҲȡǡФҵ
ȣ𣬷ҪѾʧȥжĸ
ŮѣŮ㱧˭ӣ㵱Ȼ˵һӣ
ĵǴȻ֪Լˡǵ
壬ʦԸԼ֮У˵ԼڱƵʱ
ľשͷ¾ʵФˣ
ΪԼ

봨¶ˣЩ˶ˡϣη
¼Ҫ嵭˶Щ˵׷

(XYS20080614)

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ҿ



ܵȨй֪ʶڻûнⷽķԼ
޽ֹСǵԱҪܵ͵Ĵ֡
֪ʶϰԵϲŪǰԼȺλãһ
ΣǾԱȲй쵼µӡ

ǵ֪ʶӿԴӿ¬ӹҮӲն
ѰԼݣǾǲʵѰԼڵĺԡ
ЩΪѧӢĽʦǣΪҶԵð޹⡣Ϊһп
ֻżԣ֪ʶձٹ⡣

Ϊ֪ʶӵİ֮ҳ飺֪ʶӾۼĸɡ
ͬǵΪ淶ʹյ֪ʶĻߡ

֪ܶ£ǵ֪ʶӶԼĵҪʵ̫ˣ޷֧
塢縺ʹҲǱһֱ֧˿
ĸԭ

(XYS20080614)

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ߣ

˿ԶʱȽϸ߳һΡܡ¼˿
ӦȽϳٶۣΪʵĶ߻˼ĳЩѧҼææ
żԣΨִ˷߼Ļᡣⲻǵ⣬Ҳһѧʶ
⣬ĺڵܼΪ

ڡժд˼ƪʣͦʦΪǸģ
ѧۡۺжжԼ
Ŀꡣһε¹УҶѵķǺʵظ
ܵˣڣжҸӣͶȫˡǷʦڵ
ʱı֡ҶΪӦջΪ˵
ѧҲҶȰжжʾЧá㵱Ȼ
Ϊǿʶҵһֽǣʦûܹѵûʱϸ˼
ܹΣ֮ӳѾˡΪԵģǲ
ᳫͨԻ߱ȽϿݣΪܺߣ˽ȫ
˲ͬԹһߡжԷʦָˣǼ
ˣǴġ

ΪʲôһΪΪһǰԾȣΪҲ
ˣ˶ӦȣΪΪΪˣΪ˼壬
Ƚϵ£ʵϾδо˵ı͹ߣʸߡ
еʦΪ˶ָʦӵĿѧ
ʶԱԺ󣬱޹ԱеľжΪ
רҵԱ˵оˣԾȣͽȻʧԻ𳡾Ϊͨ
ǲᳫģΪҲˡ

йʦˣΪʦӦðδˣڣʦ
ѧ¥ΡѧTeenager13ϣ Ҫ˵տ
ܹˣԲԣܰδ˵׶԰ҪʦտĶͯ
ǺܶõĹ淶ǰᡣӦùԼ
Ļһַǳǿҵ˼루壩 ѧ壬ϰ࿿壬
Ҳܿôڻַ6Сʱ֮Ա3Сʱ
֮󣬾ȻôߣǶ߹ԾȵģЩǻڶ
Σ֪ڴָ˵ĴʶΪ
ӦһӦ¥¥һıˣԣһֱ
˵ĹɱˣһѪûСᳫͷҪᳫԾȣ
˿ԴȻûôУ˾ȳȽ

ԾȵһζܾˡУΪäĿΪһ
ǷԵĻΪȷԵĻΪֻԼȫˣ
ҪǾˣǿ˽ģġʧ٣
۸ߣ۸ߣͻȫͶ룬ռȫʶ˷
ѭڵĴȺʧ¼ΪĹкܴ
Ӱ졣󷲻ˣжʧ棬Ӣ۳ƺţ
Ϊĺг᲻ߵĸ˿ǣ
Ӣ۶ֵᳫΪǲģµӢûмֵġҪ
ѧԵ̬ʧӢ۳ƺӱӦȡĽѵ
вӢԼΪĹΪ
Ͳᳫ

йΪʲôΪйͳĻΪɳܣս
־ԸսδýֹԽսϵзսҲӰٵġ
Ļ֮£ڲΪпѧԱ߿ڵĸִ
ҲΪֻӢΪҲǴӢҵƶ
ġ˴£о˶ѧѧߣо
ΪĻӰ졣ԼΪר˵
Ⱥû˼ϣ쵼һ죬֯һ¾ͿˡǷ
ǳġΪǧٹ֣ʲôУΪѸٷչĻ
ǰ˼ά·ִپǳЦǲЦǣΪ
ĻΪǷŵ𳡣δرǱָáʩˣ
ΪʲôҪܺ߷ʦΪڻأ

ѧ𳡶ѧѧڻͺԭȽ˽⡣
һŨ£һڣɥʧ1996¹
𣬵һһλÿɥǼʮڻֵ
֮Ա߸׻жҪԡֻҪΪû
⣩ˣǺģһӦרҵԱ˾
ˣûйϵֻҪӳͺáֻᳫΪۣҲ
Ĵ󵨵ءܴͳж˽һֺη
ģ˿ݾǶԼݣֻҪ˾ͺá׷˵
Ϊɵĺ˶ԼԴǺ
ѧԸܵĿѧɡ

100ǰ¸СйȽձˣܿ
䣬սŰܣûȡѵվᳫ¡˾
ʷظˡǵĸ߿ƾٿ£ˣǵ˲ͳһģʽ
˼ˣԽԽäĿˡϷԷܵĵѧȿֺ
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һȺҿˣ֪ʶӵıҲǹҵı
ǧԴ¼ͷʦ͵Ӱ֮£й·ֽһ
һߵᳫνĵ£ȴûʲô˸վͦʦ
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ԣܡ¼кҪĽ壬ҶӦ
ԽԽף˼ԽԽȡԸܹӴʶɳܣ
ᳫݣϣͬʱҲ֪ҹǿҵļ崫
ͳӱߵĹ۵뾭ѵҪõĿŬͬ߹㡣

Ի
Ļ
±ʶ
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Ϊ

(XYS20080614)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(xys.dropin.org)(xys-reader.org)

ҪͲµ˽

ߣľľ
http://mumu6.blog.sohu.com/ 

ǰֳ֪֮һҲûпһڡһ
һϯ̸ұɵӽĿֵıۡκĻ⣬
һɺ־硣һ㣬ҽķӦ
̵ᡣ

ֻϲһֱۣǾǱʼվžķάּɺȨ
ıۡ

ӵռúܶй˶뵱Ա롣ֻҪһϵӣһ
ͷСС鲻Խı

ԣǻڵϿһС

ƲɣôʣǸйһ޴ļһ
ڵº͵Ĺϵκβµ˽ֻһǾȡ
裬ӽŴһ

μһɢѵ࣬û¾ȥɳʲôģоܺð
֪ڵһȭҪ塣

(XYS20080614)

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ҲũԤ

ߣ

ڱͳƵʱڣ1꣩5.0ϼĵ224Σ5.579
Σ635Ρ35*100/24*2=292 35*100/24=14679*100/24
=329Ԥ6ϣ6.50.5100Сʱڣ򸲸146죬
£ƽ50%˵ԡԤ5.5ϣ60.5100
Сʱڣ򸲸329죬£ƽ93%˵ԡũԤС
5.50.5933죬ʱ串250%ϣҪɶԺףҪ
ɴѡ

ʵЩλãǾֲеģĳЩԾ㣬ЩԾ㣬
ũصĵݿҵֻҪ֪ССѧ
꼶ϳУͿԤ÷ǳãǸѧ˵˴ѧ
ô򵥵ĵɴҸطԼײˡ

⣬֣ǸũʱΪʲôһֻжٸСʱԤ⣬
԰100Сʱ50ˡ 

(XYS20080614)

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Ԥĸ

ߣѰ

ڷӲϳ壬бҪչһ£һ¡Ѱ
ҲԷûҪȣִûԼȷԴƱҶĳ
Щ˵еȣܶ۵ôõİա

캣ԭģ

ͳԤ֤ȣȷΪ
ۣӰ첻󣩡ӹԣ˿ϵݲȫ
߼Ļ֮ϡһƪУȻ˾ȵسһ

Ԥ⣬ָһ߼ϵA¼B¼һA¼
BҲȫԤ⣻A¼B¼A¼ BҲ
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Ԥ⣻A¼B¼ķĻ3070%ΣôA ¼B¼
Ԥֵ

˵κβܷ¼۹񣬶ɶκοܷ
¼СȫԤ⡱κο¼κβ¼ĲԼ
ԡȫԤ⡱ҲɡԤ⡱ѵ100%߼ʣ
˼ǣA϶ĳŲƱͷDDȷ˵һԪĴ
ؽ˰ɨDDB˲ƱнҪƾһ仰ŲƱ30-70%
нʣ߻ΪԤ޼ֵ𣿾Ըʣ
ʣԲϤ۵ˣʶеҲȱȽǡ



۵ˣΰѡκβܷ¼κο¼
СȫԤ⡱ʵ˷ѽ⣬Ҫ˵۹ˡѵA
ķ׵˵Aһ¼ôáܷ¼
һʾ˶Ը۵֪۾ԲǸʵ
гʶ˼άҲԡԷ¼Ȥ
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ֻ¼

캣ԭĵ˵ֱǽˮƽĽڶ
䣬¼ĲԡɶĹԡèèԡ
ϵԡЩҪԤôרң

A϶ĳŲƱͷAһʲô¼
ĳ϶ĳŲƱŲƱ30-70%ĻнҸ㡰캣
ƨҹרҰʦȥˣҪ˵30%Ļʣ1%ĻҲϣͷ
ѪҲҪϣؼǹĳ˻ô϶е˱ҵԭһ˿
ϵһʶˣᶮۣ϶ĳƱĳƱ
Ļʾ30-70%Ԥ׼ȷ30-70%ͬ˳ѡ

оټԶĳЩ־ŶЩʸ
ǲҪרңͨ˵з̡Ҷǰ
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A¼B¼һA¼BҲȫԤ⣺
ABABABôAAǷԤBķ
ǵģȫԤ⡣

ABһABҲABABAʱ
ǿԤBķAʱ޷ԤBķԽвȫ
Ԥ⣬ֻԤⲿֵB

A¼ķB¼ĻʺܸߣǾͽлԤ⡣B¼
ͨ10%AˣB¼Ļ20%ͳѧһ
գrelative risk)߻ʱ(odds ratio)ʾAµĻӣ
ߵǷȺдԣ£Aķ
Bʵһ

ǰֳУ̸׼ȷԤ⣬ʹǲȫԤ⣬
ԤʱԤ׼ȷġԤУ׼ȷԾͲˣȡӦʲ
Էգ5%Է10Ԥ⻹޷
ڶӲҡ40%ԷһԤ׼ȷԾ
ܸˣﵽ80%

A¼B¼ķĻ3070%ΣôA¼B¼
ԤֵԻԤԤԵģAB ¼
50%ôA޷жBķ¸20%Ǿ
ݶѣҪԤĳԤ߱һҪԽ˷Χ
ûмֵˣֻһԣʱ30%70%ĸҲġ

˼ǣʵͣУA5%A
BʱΪ50%ôAķBĲԤԣAΪ Bķ
أȴҪޱȡԤǿеĿģûAǼ׼ȷԤ
BԽһǾȫ޷ԤBԻԽˣ
Էոߴ10AǿеĽޡ

AmselǷԤоеԷգоУֵ1ƫ
1кֵܴƫ룬ֵϰ˵ǣ1ǷأС
1ǱءԤоҪʵp1p2p1100%, p2=0%, 
ȫԤ⣻p1=100%, 100%>p2>0%, ǲȫԤ⣻p1ߣ>80%), 
p2ߣ>80%A߷AԻԵԤBķ 

(XYS20080614)

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ձһʱα

ë
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4747bc0701009mt7.html

ղţձǿԴءΪ710
ҡ

ʱ䣬MSN죬ӿţԿ˵һʱı
8:43ңһٱ1 Ӻ44֣ڽĿг
һС棬Ա˵:ղŶǿʱע⡱Ȼӻ
ʼͬݵĻԼ30ԺNHKѾֲɽ
γѣԱˣݵ2໧˼Ѿϵ磬¸߽ͣ
УȫʱͣˣҿĵľͷҲʼ˵ӻ
ϣĿµľͷ

ΪıĪڵ̨Լİ칫ңԵԱѸٵı
ʱ򣬻ϵľͷѾʼط˵ʱİ칫ڵ龰

ϿԿ󲿷ְԱûϰ࣬ó
УҾƿʼ𣬷ְԱǺܳţûоŵ

ͬʱڲһԺ󣬽ͼϸĽ͡
ձÿζһNHK̨ڵһ
ʱӿԴĵֱ̨֧칫ڵ龰Ȼ˵ٳ
ЧӦ˵ֱзǳǿ

ԸֵձҲܿǿһ!

(XYS20080614)

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˳˿뾫ȷ˼ά

ʯ

γδ֢ѧΪζ֢˿ض
һҲˣٽ⡣⣬ζ֢ʵ
μٶ֢תʱٶȱ仯ںʹϲ
Ļ򸺵ļٶȣ˲ġٶȵľֵܴҳʱ
ʱζ֢ͷţٶɣٶȺܴٶȵķɻ𳵡
ϣζ֢ᷢ޷ҵĸ׼ĸζ֢ҡ
ӡӶûдȱݡĸ׼ĸҼݵĳʱζ֢
ΪһѼٶȵľֵƵúСζ֢߳ĳ̶ֳȵ⣬
ԳȼСǻζֵ֢عͣǣͣ
ڼվʱζ֢ᷢǶȼ͹ҵһۣζ
֢Լݳʱζ֢ᷢΪʻ߶Գǰ˶Ԥϡ
Ӧأζ֢ǰŻ򸱼ʻʱζ֢Ͳ׷ĸ
Ka˵Ϊܿ塰ǰ̡Ԥ֪˶
롰ҰԶľͨá޹ءֱۡ
ǰϿسΣͿ֤ǰγ顣Ԥ
ʱγᣨףܳǿǹأʱγᷢ
ǿǹءζ֢ߵʹԴڲԤ֪Լ˶
ϵͳ֡۵ءҪ˶ȴǸϣͣرŵľ
Źȣ¡񾭴ҡŻ²ѡȥǷȷרҺ
ζָ֢

˳˿顱Ҫȷ綨ʻڽɽ·ʱ
黹Чǳ˿ͻζ֢ʱᵽ˳˿顱Ҫ
˵äž顢ѵͳҪȷ˼άҪ桱Ҫʱ
˱仯ʱҪӦصʹ顢ѵͳɶԡ
Чɷִ֣֪ʶϵҲǽ

ֻоȷ˼άЧʣܷ࣬ſܷչѧ
ֻּܷ࣬ǶǣԶﴫ;Ҳûпѧԡҵһ
ѧͬ£丸׶һҽģ׽ڡԴġ
ŨȵҽҩУԵأҳɳȫġŨȵҽҩ
УױѧƯסŨҩݡ󱻿ѧƯסҲ
ڡƯסֵо֤ȣӱ֤Ϊ
߷ϲ֪֤α֤ģͳ֤ѧ֤ʵ
֤ȣҽΪۡձϵͷչ۵ģʵ
ǱۣۡҽڡζѧġҽͿѧ
ǰҽڼֶѷһ֪ġŹҫҽǼ
ͨġ̷ҽġ֮ʱҽձͳ
˧ҽҽѧɡҫ֮աҡγӸ
Ͱڷű֤ҽѧ͡ҽƺ¡֡۷
֢˾Ҫ֮һ丸ġκˡһͬľ
ھӡһӲݶϵݿˣȴûд˵˼ֶ𼲲
Ŀ϶Чҽ϶ЧΪ뾫Ȭڡϵͬ
ϻٿϵѧͳѧĴо
ٿΪͬԴҽͬᾧ׶εĲͬͬãҸ
뾫Ȭġϵڶġϵ˾ڸĸ￪ź
ƴѧһġǡܵǿҵġѹ
תþΣȴԾе͵ġҽĵ˼ά߼ͷҶ
ĽҵʹͳΪпΪ˼ά棬һǿ͹ۣһ˼ά
ľȣΪʵ֤ڿ͹۷棬΢ҽлǿģ磬
ġȬҩȬǿ͹۴ڵġǣ˼
άľȲǹؼֻųʱ뾫Ȭ
ĹϵɿʵǼ࣬ȥ֤ʵĴǼϼӼ٣ȫ
ٵĿռ񱼣ֻѧԽԽԶԣͲл
ȣϿѧҶνġԼɪ⡱һ⡣
ҽĻԴû˼άȡ

ѵúͿĽǺͿڱƭ͡ȷĲҽС֮
ǺͿ׷ӡ˳Ҫȷ㣬ѧ尲
ȫܴͳ֤ҽͿ

(XYS20080614)

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˵ӡĽѧ̬



ߵĺߡҲ˵ӡĽѧ˼άܵɣҪ
Ƥƹġ֮˵߾̸ᣬҲ

һˮԽӵ

ӵ˶֪ˮԺǰѽµڽӽ
˹ˮ£ˮͲˣʱӳ˹סʱΪʲôӻ
ˮأΪʵĵģԲḡˮ档
Ϊ˷ֹմ߻ճһҪưˮһתһתˮȵ
ѽƤ̣Ͳմˡ

ǣˮԺưתһתĻǻῴһ
ˮϣƺһЩΪʲôḡˮأ˵ӵĸ
ˣʵĵģΪʲôӸأ

ʵ˵ʵĵģҲԶԵģˮݡм϶ģ
ڡƤ֮Ҳп϶ˮȶ뵽Ժ󣬻ˮ
ȴܲӯڽʹӱһССĸټƤ
ˮĸӾ͸ˮϡ

ӡԺ󣬽ӯ˽϶ˮźܡ֡
˵оˣڡԺ©Ҩָ
Ƥп磬Ƥ£һ־ͻᵯӾĸպú
ʡ

˵ˮ·ڴ100ȣzϣʱ(ݲƺ)
¶Ƕأûв֪ʱˮã¶ǻ
100ȵģңƤ©һѹһ¶ȡ

ڿ£ֿˮ䣬ˮгֵĿռϣ
ҲӦи²ڲˮϸߣ²Сǿˮ󣬽Ƥ


ƹ£ǰˮȥˮºͽӵƤ¶Ƚ(ʵ
ûнͶٵģֻˮῪ˰ˡڼǽˮֻһ),
ڲ¶Ȳͬ½ΪнƤţʱ²ӦôһЩ,
ٸϹ,һˮ£Ƥ99ȣһˮϣ
ˮˮ¶Ƚϸߣһáңˮ
δڣƤӰС

ˣƹȽϣ

Ƥ100,ڡˮ¶Ըߣ101ȣ²һȣ

ƹƤ99ȣڡˮ¶ȣҲ101ȣ߽һ㣬1005
ȣΪнƤţһⶼͬһȣ²2ȣ15
ȣ

ɼͬʱ䣬ƹˮأʱԽƤ
ǲһġ

ֲһ׼ȷԭ岻Ϊˮͬˮʱ
ˮ¶Ȳһϸµ˵,Ƥˮģˮ
ġάڲ¶Ƚϸ߶ˮ½ϵҲƤ£
ڡƹġˣ֮ǡƤԣƤӲͬڵ
Ӳƥ䣨ƤӲں෴оʦҰɣ
ǿԵڵġ

νġӲǸڸеΪļ㡣һ
Ҫ˵ˣֻ˵죬̫Ҳһ

Ҫʵ飬ҽ桢Ƥڡ㣬Խһ
ЩһӣȻ󣬷ֱáһ͡Ρ
ǣõӲ桢ƤСڡ˶٣ҹԣ
Ϊһ²ö־õĽ𲻴ģӵĿڸо
Զ˵ĻƫǰߣЧԣƫںߣ
Чԡҹ˵ĽƫںߣԣΪ𲻴󣨻
߲ԶΪûУóۣͳ󷨡š

˵ƤڴͶĽϡƽ80ǰҪ
ôһ˴εˮȣǿȫ˵ʢ£رǺӣ
ɰĿֽ֡ܿգһҪĺáôأм
ʮľϣǲ׸߱˵ġ֪һڽ
ŵãԺýӣǧһס

˵ġͳʵѡ

Сʱͥ˿ڶ࣬Ϳʼɼӡ
ӡǸḻ, ϸԼĴͳˮжӣ
ѣҲҪӡУӲûô׼ʲ
ôʲôклƤӲġûϣʼò
÷úٺȻҲù¯,΢¯

УʱΪú㣬ʱˮ٣ˮûˣ,ʱ
Ҫʱ䣬ҲԹ˿ѣ˿ѣ˵Щʲôһ
С𷨡ӿˮȵȡջǾãйԽӲ
ΪӣҪɫζΧҪ뾫󾫣˿ޣ
ﵽ¯ĵزѡóԲӡ£ֻҪǡ
ˮȱȽϺãۺǿԵڶµ
α仯(ȻҲҪܰ)ܹȽĽӡ

ǿѧ

ΪΪжʱ䣬Ȼӱ׼ȷڸгר
õĶʱַ㹻׼ۡʱˮʱڵˮ
ڼȵĻܵĸؽ϶࣬ʱԾȷʵΪ²ߡ

ȻˡרõĶʱ,ǵȥ,мʦǿ
ű˵,Ҳǿ,ֹˮҲÿζǱ׼ˮȡνʱ,
ҲֻǸο,Ҫݽӵе,ȻǸʱ乩οΪʲô
þȥʱء

,ʹӱˮȵͬʱ,ôѲӱжʱ
ӵҽ˼ά?Դɶóǡҽ˼άĽ,
е˵Լ? 

õ緹ֹ׷ǿѧĽÿѧš
ֻܹ֤ҪȻȥֹȣֹȣ
ˡҹƹһַ꣬ǳ߼󷹷󷹣õ
ҲΪͳʱǰǽĵ󷹻ţ
ڵġѧʿǷͬأ

ġˮǡҽ˼ά

ѵÿλˮˡ

Ǹԣ˼ҡҪһˮ,һ˼ǲ
ˮġֲˮ,ô?ˮǸİ취

ڶͬϣˮĲǡҽ˼άˮҲӦ
ҽ˼άɡ

塢ĸԴڣ

۵Ķ˾ԻΪʲôԳƳпѧˣ˴ΪԷ
ǡҽ˼ά

Ϊȱѧ̬ȡɵġ¬˵̬ȾһС
ûпѧ̬ʱʹпѧ֪ʶҲóѧĽۡʲôпѧ
̬?ΧȻܹ㣬ǣӦðЩƽȡءԻ
ˡʵǼΨһ׼ȵȡ

꽭ϯضʾⳤƼԼ˵ǶǲӬ
Сʲ׶ʾԼ˵Һܸ˿ɱ
ȻҲת䣬˵ͬյġӬӡԻˣ
ǸϲĽ

,緶,̬,Ż,Ż˼,ʵ飬˼
ʵŻ֪,ԼǰʶҪô,Ҫô,Ҳܹ
˵ߡ,ǿ,Сڽʽ  
֮ԱǡЦšȵȣô˵ġ
ν֮Ӹ¡ԡĻԽСȥûжۣʱܽģ
Ĵͳ顣ǲеⳤŷ? Ѵͳһ˵ǿѧĶǲ
ģǣһ˵˵㡰ͳĿѧΪǱͳѧ
ѿѧһͬͳѧ𲽷չȫûдͳ
ƵģҲǲȷġʵǿѧ˼ά

д룬Һãеӵľ飬Ҳеѧ֪ʶһ
˿ԣܹЩΪǱ˵Ĵ󣬼ԼĿ
أµؼӹƷζڷлʳ
ǣЩĻߵļͥأ˵ʲôأǲѧ
ܹ˵ʲôǣЩ۰ȴ˵ǣѸıǡ
ʱ㷴ΪԼȷĶǹִĺŵģΪûܷ
㣬ָĴ̬ȣôܹ˵һȥأôܹͬ
ѧĴأ⣬ֵ˼

ŰѴͳһųŵġѧʿ磺ܵ˵Ҳϲ
κεĴͳǲйģ˵because they are baseless 
(Ϊûиݵ)Exactly!ǣʱҲ룬
աһɡĽۣ᲻пѧĳһ죬˵ǡȷǽ
ӱֵ͵ĴлʳͳĻĶҲᱻ׵ǳ伢
ҪͰۡڡҶһÿһӪҲ
ȥ߸ɴ㣬ҪʲôͳʳĻصëѪʱȥأ

00ʮ

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˿ϵһС

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ҹ

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˿ѡǿƼԱԳֵ˵
һ࣬ҸоЩһʮȻǸϷ

2˿վص£ҳؼ֣Ȼ˿
ҳϽǵĵذťעǣҪֱؼǵ
ťתgoogleҳѡxys site searchѡؼ
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ҳաɿֱӵַӿܺʧܣ
йͨʾʵַڡԭwww.xys.org
ʵҲһվڵɣѧᣬѧߡ

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