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07.06.11ûи
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                   ﲡΪʲôţ

                       ӡ

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۵ʧ׼·

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˻أʵǡʡĹͣʳ¾ٳ
ôеĿԾͺܸˡװģһ˵
УͻᱻΪĹͣ￪ȥ˵УҲ
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ֻŮ̥ɡŮҡϰ޻
̸֮Ԥ׼ȷʲ50˭Ҫȥ
Ĳͳơ

2007.5.30.

ù۲챨2007.6.11ǳʱɾڣ

(XYS20070612)

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֢ʩΡ֤ʩ
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ꡱϺ
ר


ʱ2007.6.8.

CBAҩƼЭᣩܳݵˣһɴ
Ĺٳ̳鳡ͻİŵһάйѧڵķ
ӡ2007CBAҪĻʱڷݽ֮ǰ
˵ȥCBAᣬרС˵عѶǡ߰ŵ
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רҡ˿վĴ˷ӽרá

1990꣬йƼѧϵƱҵ󣬸Ъѧѧ
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	¶ĵһǡʺ󡱡ѧ⼶
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	еʱڡձϿҽƴѧı
ȻʼʵѰҵĳҩֱд
˵ڵġºᡱ˵һʮڵӯ
Ƿ˵ѧѾʱˣǹµо

	ҽѧרҶǳ֧ҡȫһҵƭ֡
ֺܾͨƭΪ̸ٵľ
ֱԿκö̬飬ԿΪʲôп
ҵ鹲

ʵĴپǾͿԿԹĳЩܵ󣬷
һλ˵ʵ۵װʾҸ˵޵ģǣ
ϣܹͨҵŬҶĹעܶ˶Ϊѧ
һƬǣһЩ󱻽ҷͻһЩС
áǡ˿վһලáؼǶѧһ
塣ѧһȷʶ˵Ϊ˲ȥ٣
ͨøʽѧ٣ҶУؼǿδ
Ҫ׷εġҽ¶600УĿǰֻܴʮ
𣬽ڱҲֻм

˵ڡ˿վϵǳģǾ˲ġÿ춼յ
ܶٱĲϡҪԷʵһ໥εĻ
վϣҷΪԼ绤

οѧ٣ԽԽ࣬ʱ˵
ѧĸһϵġкܴĹϵһ
ĵ·

ĵˡһ˹ɣӺ̹Ȼ˵Ȿ
һ˵Ĺڹҡ鷳֮⣬һ
θٽв顣һһװͿİ壬
֮Ͷ˵Լ˵ﳤȥҵ
񣬿ʵ˺滹ˡҲԤе飬ǣҲ
ţǵóѡֻԺСġ

ϲ·ƽεŴӢ塣ӳ
СڡΪĴѧﵱһȽɵ
빤Ǻ֣ѧҪʵ顢ģҪ뷽跨
л˾ϰ࣬ÿҪ׼ʱ°࣬Ҫع˾Ĺƶȡ
Լÿ״̬ĸСʱһЩʼһ
Щٵľٱר֤ʲôġȻдͶ飬ý
дרÿҪдʮƪһЩ

˵ҲкܶҺ֪һǺ
ϵ֮󣬴ٵĹٺܴϰԣҶһһܾˡ

ڷӵĴ֮࣬ǻ˽⵽ҽ⣬ڵһЩר
һЩͬĵһҽΪʷƾã
һľ۵ģкõĶĿǰĿѧչĽ׶Σ
ǵҩĳɷǷȫģǷȫ⡣ҵ
⣬еҩǼҩĳɷֵġӦִѧķҽѧ

ӺϿʵһλǳĹġƥ򡱣Լ
רҵѧලѧΪ֮ˣ˼˵ֲηǿ
Ȼ˿һʱܱ
࣬ӾĹܣĻǳ

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

һĻư
ѧԺȨװϻ

ߣYush

ѧԺڱ߱Ƽ硢Ȩװܹڹע
ой֪ʶ硢𾪡¼ȻȽ3
ꡢ۷硡ý屨ڶࡢϷӡۺԭʼϣ
ںýο

Ŀ¼

һ.
.ġ١
.롰šġй𾴴ѧУ
.¶СĻɥʧ֪ɥ

.׷ԴWTOйоġվ
.׷ԴҰƤ˾
.ⰸWTOרҵ֤ࡱ¼
.ⰸŮн40¼
.аչ硢¼
ʮ.䱾롢ڱ߱Ƽ硢
ʮһ.ôߡٿõ壬١ˡִ

һ. 

1.  

񣬱ӣЪѧﻯѧʿң
׫ˡڿѧռٽαСѧɾͽҽȡ
ֵ˿վں֪ʶӵشӰ졣ΡƼר
ߣڼ׫дġʳҽʤġ
ֻ̤ۡ͡ĵԺʿѡˡαȨߣ
ѧйʿ̰о֧ŽԼ
ձӲ ѧԮĿǰФ
߷ӵȨбһмԺһФߣ
δȫ˴Դٶϣڶຣ
֪ʶǩ𹫿Ԯӡֱ֧Ƽ
ʽļС顱͡йѧѧŻᡱΪṩ

Ƽ걨ĿƼܿ򷢱Ĵҽʳ
¼ڱ¼ӻ¼͡Ф¼й¶
Ȩϣߣϸϼ˿˴ա

2. ԭ 

ڱѧԺԺˡӵڶ٣ͬʱҲڡ2005
ʮƤа񡱰еڶСڱļȻܵ
ʮλѧʦȴϷŰ䡰ŮʽĲë
֮ءೡӳǽҸ̳ڱͼ
http://dingzuyixfu.blog.sohu.com

ѧԺ룩ųйУУѧ4Ȼ
ԷΪѧȼͬǿġй˽ϴ󡱣ȴµ
ѧазֱӵĺ͵ڰˡȻԳӢУΪXi'an 
Fanyi UniversityFanyiѧСѧ
UniversityӦеѧλʸȻУС롱֣
УٷӢҳֳӢˮƽѳЦȻųƲȡ׼»
ӵ̬У棬ȴѧձðշǽΪɫϷΪ
ǽѧԺѧڿ˿ˣҲнʦȻĶѧסѧѧ
ССרУ̳Сÿӵɴ
йǧСȷר

3. Ļ 

񣬱He YuminˣԳƿƼձ
࣬ݳƲʿϵU.S.A. FIFTYSTATE HIGHER EDUCATION UNIONķ˴
ߣIncorporatorעˣWTOйоġˣ
ҵĻչоġˡ

U.S.A. FIFTYSTATE HIGHER EDUCATION UNIONν50ݸߵȽ
ˡȫߵȽˡʵΪһҵ˾ù˾5
͡ߵԺУ顱롢ڱ䷢ˡ׼ֵУ
ойѧУ𾴵йѧУ֤顣
ʾ8ݡU.S.A. FIFTYSTATE HIGHER EDUCATION UNION
U.S.A. FIFTYSATE HIGHER EDUCATION UNION壬롢ڱΪ
ййѧУڡɼʱ档
ṩĹ˾ϣá50ݡ˾δмҵ˾е
˰200621ձ˰ظݼݲ˰շֹӪҵ

WTOйоģԳơաô߼˼ʶ֮ʿ
ʵó֯޹ϵ֯Դš
500ǿš뿼Ƹٰ조WTOרҵ֤ࡱ
ͶڱһA8LӳµϽγԱ;⡱ͬʱ
50Ԫҽѧ𡣡WTOйоġwtocrcc.com20038
16δɷѶʧЧ

ҵĻչоģʹɷݺ˾עʽ20Ԫ
ɡWTOйоȨȫȨʵʩWTOרҵ֤ѵͿԡ
ط˰ܿ200738ķ˰ͳƱù˾
20041223ʧٶ˰޷ǿ˰˱϶Ϊ
˰鱱ҵϢϵͳҵ
չоġѱӪҵִա

зƴƷ޹˾˽Ӫι˾עʽ50Ԫλ
ڱ޸ׯ山ţܾɶ⣨⣩ԡаı
ƴƷ޹˾аĺʱƴʳƷ˾μӡ
500ǿҵΪ41ҴҵɵġйԴš
족н4050ԪԤƸĳŮΪ̫гչ
ɡŮн40¼ԺжԤн40
50Ԫʵ
 
ȫϼ
http://www.xlogit.com/xysupload/15xfzl.htm

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

ԳٻӦĽһ

ߣ

 ã

˿ϼˡڡٶֽ̰ڼѧѧ
ɹĻӦɡһģд÷ǳеǾòϸ¡Ϊ
ЧĴЩѧߣҾԼҲӦóһϸĶ
ٵĻӦͬʱռһЩڸ¼Ϣ˼
һЩ뷨뷽ģвףԵ˼ô
뷽ҳʹҹ

1

ڳٵĻӦһλֽΪ֮һ׫ĵRustȣ1999
Inmanȣ1997£Ӫ򶥼ڿMarketing 
ScienceEBSCOݿڣǰıô40ıô30

ʵλΪ֮һǵߣƪǵõ
ɣֵֻܱоŶӵĳɹõϿɣȻƪǡȥ
ʽˣ˵ֽڵ⡣Щ˵ʲôأ⣬
ϴԼֽܵѧ̰ܸ¼ǷԸѧ
еȴʵʵڵģǷܹܸ¼˭ٱģصת
¼أȻģΪҪôĻӡתƽ
أ׸һòתƽĸоɣѧǷڳϮһ
£߾֤ļֽڵĳϮһ£ܻΪһ̸

2

ڽһԳٵĻӦǰҪѵһЩ۵ȸ
Ԥ֪ʶ

2.1 Ԥ֪ʶ

һƪѧ˵ǶߣôľǸһ
˵ĳɹмߣôɹ⼸߹ɵоУ
Ҳ˵²ĳһ˵ĳɹʵǸǳ򵥵⡱
ȫȻƪӢ¼ֽڲǶߣǵߣ
ôѧɹȻӦ÷ֱɵо塣Ҳ˵˵
ΪֽڼֽӢµ߾Ͳ㳭ϮĻôվסŵģ
Ϊȫ

 жߵģʵϳɹӦ塯˿
Ϲҳľٱеʵƪ¶Ƕߣôƪ
ĳɹֱ˭أһһг
[1]һƪӢڣRoland T Rust, J Jeffrey Inman, Jianmin Jia , 
Anthony Zahorikλɵ壻
[2]ڶƪӢڣJ Jeffrey Inman, James S Dyer, Jianmin Jia
λɵ壻
[3]ƪ: ٣ֽ λɵ壻     
[4]ƪ: ٣ֽ񣬺η λɵ壻
Ϸѿʵƪĳɹֱĸͬ
о塣

ƪµо壨ߣȫͬģôֻ˵Ƿһ
⣬ǴԿо岢ͬԲΪֽ
Ӣµߣοǵһߣ˵䲻ǳϮΪĹؼ
ƪӢµĹϵȷǳϮӢ£ô
϶˵ƪµо峭ϮӢоĳɹ
ܼ򵥡

2.2ڼֽڼѧϮ֤

Ԥ֪ʶҪŪֽڼѧǷڳϮ⣬ؼ
ƪǷϮƪӢ£һ֤

ڻӦһλڡϵͳʵϵҪ
̽ģͷչҪģ͡óҪҲԴģƵĽ
Դ˽֣̽Ҳģ͵ķչڡѧѧ
ϵҪʵ֤оΪʵ֤оҪģƵ
ԱزٸĶģ͵Ƶһ˵Ǹĵۻʯ
ѧǲע⵽ļ費ѧģƵ...

Գλϸ߿Է֣һ˵ǵҪǶ
ģ˷չƵֻ򵥵ķͿԿǷĳ
Ϯ

һ⣺

ҿԿһRust et al(1999)ƪµ80-83ҳҲµĵڶ
СڡModel Developmentһ,СѾԿⲿģ
չйʽ234ͣ5ȻRustģͷչԭ
ж

1һֽģͷչн߸ģͣĸ
˵ȫǹ֪ͬʶôRustʲôչأ

2ڹʽ2һ仰from which we can get the 
predictive(marginal distribution)of X,˹ʽ2ڹʽ
3һ仰If we scale the unitsȵȣﲻһһоˡ
ŴҶסwe can getʲô˼

Ȼʽ2RustģͷչôΪڡϵͳʵ
ϵоͱˡǽһõxԤƣ߼ʣֲʽ
أΪʲôͱǵأ

⣬ڡѧѧϵиʽ2֮ǰһ仰
ԽһõxԤƣ߼ʣֲ(predictive or marginal distribution)
ʽ,ûиãҪ˵ǰС
Berger(1985)[12]仰ĻôζŹʽ2Ǹ
Berger(1985)óģֽRustΪоŶĹںεأ

ڶ⣺

J Jeffrey Inman et al(1997)ƪµ101ҳڶһ仰
A special case of (1) is obtained by defining a linear function of 
the expect performance, u1(X)=c0X ΪҹùʽWord༭
ûдϻߡ⣬101ҳ2.3ڡThe Measure of 
Disappointmentеĵһһ仰Following Bells basic 
assumptions, we can develop a more general measure of 
disappointment(or elation) as follows:һʽ

        c1D   when D>=0,
u2(D)=                              (2)
       c1D   when D<0

ŴҲ֪we can develop˼ȻJ Jeffrey Inman
չģͣе102ҳһ仰Consistent with our 
development of the disappointment/elation measure(2), we also use a 
piece-wise linear utility model for the regret/rejoicing component: 
Ĺʽ

       c3R   when R>=0,
u3(R)=                              (3)
       c4R   when R<0

ȻгʽJ Jeffrey InmanȵĳɹΪڡϵͳ
ʵϵоͱˡǽһٶʧ/⡢/
ϲı߼Чǲģ߿ԱֱΪ
ʽһϡΪʲôJeffrey Inmanȵĳɹͱ˳
ڡٶʧ/⡢/ϲı߼Чǲġһּٶ
µóģͣ

Ԥ֪ʶԼԤ֪ʶµ֤ŴѾ
ȷжϣ

ִ֧ѧ⣬緽վС˴աе
ѧʵűʵ̤ʵǶӦԵ
˲Ϸ򣬲ܵλߣǶҪ¶

ȻǵλûǸߣУи֧֣
һʤ

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

޺㸦л񹲺͹ܼòһ⹫

𾴵ܼò:

!

200746, , ޺㸦, ͻȻյѧ⻪ѧԺԺά
ӭһӢ(뿴). άӭ֪ͨ: ѧ⻪ѧԺ44Ժ
, Ҵ200751, ѧԺκδ, ڹ
ѧԺĽְ, ҵµƽѧ². ҶԴ˸еȾ
ֺЦ. ôйһѧȻ˻Ƶ! ڴ֮ǰ, 
άӭû֪ͨΥ˹⻪ѧԺĹ涨, ѧУѵ,Ը
ذҵ. ʵ, Ҵ1990꿪ʼ͵õе֧, 人ѧ
ԼѵǮѧ. 1997, ׯƼ, ͬʱɽѧѧ
ԺҲæѧ(ûκιʴ). ЩλпƼѧУʱ֪
, ΪҲУ, ٹ, صʦ쳤ͬѧѧ. 
19988, ɽѧżȻʱ뿪CCERάӭ. Ѿ
ι⻪ѧԺԺְ, е㾪. һ뵽CCER ü
һCCERĸҲûиһ, ҲĴʹ. ͻȻ
ҵ⻪ѧԺѧ. Ӧ. ҵı, ֪. 
19981212յѧ²Ƕ, йһԼ
֤! ڱѧ֪. ҵİѧCCER, 󾭼ѧԺ, 
廪, ˴ĳҲǿ, ΪʱҲǿػпƴ󵱾
ѧԺһԱɽǿҲ人ر. ڱ֮, 
ҵҪ: ӹľѧγ̶ѿ,ҵѧҲ
ν. 2001, ֿʼп, 㽭ѧҪκδذҦ
һСæ. һ, άӭ͹⻪ѧԺʦ֪, Ҳ
Ƿǳ֧ҵġɾ. ʵ, άӭҲǳϣҶ뿪. 
ຣĿֵǹ: Ƕ֪ҵһŴ
Ϳ̱, ǵĿｲûн, ӵ!

2004328һشת۵: άӭͨʼͻȻҪҸ
绰ֻ:

To: hzou@worldbank.org

Subject:

03/28/2004

Hengfu:

I am at Home. You can call me , or 

ǺþûͨѶ.329տʼ, »ظ:

Dear Weiying,

I'll call you right away.

Heng-fu

Ҵ绰,һҵ˵:Ҫ⻪Ժ, 
ĸУҲûо.Ȼ,˵һܰԺ,ڷǳҪ
һϵεһƱ.ǻԼ518ռѧУҪ쵼. ҷµ绰
, ֥Ӹѧĵ˵绰: 㸦, һҪάӭԺ! 
άӭͺ㸦ڱ⻪ĸĸǷֲѽ! Ļе㲻
:ѽ, ôһಡ!еͺ,
Ҳð! , յһƱѵĵ绰.˵
Ļ춼ô, ʵԺߵ20043ǰ
ǲ̫õ: Ͼάӭͺ㸦ڱ⻪ĸĸǷֲѽ!ǲ֪
ҰάӭȫйЦû, άӭӲΪ. 
յı. Ҿμĵڶ. Ұ, ֪ʶڱ⻪
˲п. ӵԶԶ. 2004518, ܵȥ. ˭Ҳû뵽άӭ
Ҳٶ. ͨҵֻ, ˵人.һǳʧ. Ҵ˺ֻ
άӭһ, Ϊʵֶܲ. άӭǷǳϲ. ÿһ, 
Ȼһֶ! Ҳһ. ͺһάӭCCERĶ
. άӭʱѧ, ͬʱñҲܺúõظѧ!
йУı.

2005, ߶Ľ־ʼ⻪Ժ,άӭǳԺ. 
Լ־ʳ̸һ. ־һʿ, ҵİ칫(⻪¥421
). ΪάӭԺ20056·һҪҲϵ, ,
ձĲ̺. Ҳ, 1998⻪ʱ, ֻ뵱һѧ
İ೤, άӭȴרҪҸһµӦþѧϵϵθ. , 
ҪҲϵ, Щѧ,  Annals of Economics and Finance 
һѧ. άӭԺͬҳ׷, ΪԺһС
. Ұһж˵־. ־Ժҷǳ: 人
ѧĸУ, ֻܸ; ѧһƽ̨, Ҫ!

2006, άӭԺ. ܿµEMAIL ֪ͨ:

-----"zhang weiying" wrote: -----

To: "Hzou@worldbank.org"
From: "zhang weiying"
Date: 06/07/2006 02:37AM
cc: "zpwu2006"
Subject:

Dear Hengfu:

How are you? Long time no see! Hope this letter find you well.

I would like to let you know that the deans meeting has made the 
following decision at this afternoon meeting:

(1) Appoint Cai Hongbin as the Chairperson of the Applied Economics 
Department; and Zhou Li'an as the deputy chairperson of the department.

(2) So, you and Li Qi will not take any admistrative duty at the 
Department of Applied Economics from today.

I hope you understand this decision. I appreciate your contributions 
to the school and the department as well. However, as I told you last 
year, given your time constraints, you are unable to do administrative 
work as required for the department chair.

I hope you will continue to keep your promise to the School. While we 
have a special policy to you, as a professor, some minimum 
requirements must be met. In particular, apart from Wuhan University 
and the World Bank, you shall not take any other postions with other 
institutes.

I am sorry, since I have been not able to find you, I have not been to 
talk about this decision to you face-to-face,

Regards


Weiying

ֻƿԵط: ҵϵαͲ̺ıõ! ÿ
ڹ⻪ĵҵκ, ڵļ︨ҵо. άӭ
Ҳ; Ҳ: ҲͳġLong-Time-No-Seeͬ. 
ϲҵĹ⻪ҵ, ҲÿǳԷ, Ϊ
˰ϸйһ˰Ҫ߶.

֪, Ҷйѧõ. ѧѧ벩ʿ
ѧ, æ: 걱()Ү³, 廪(
ѧ) ˹,ˬ˶, ҶǴд绰
ѧУĽ, ߶ȵرǵĳɼ. 人ѧѧ, ˲ȥͶ
, ⼸궼ȥȽϲѧУ.

ΪҪ: ڱѧʱ⻪, Ӣ, 
御Ƕ!

Ϊάӭͷ, ȫйշѾ˵Ѳؽ
. ȥһνҲû, ǰһڱൺ
ɲΨһһα.Ǹǧ, ҶĶ. 
Ƿǳֵ, Ϊʲô⻪ʦôߵĽη. ˵ǻû
ƶ. ͨҴǵշѱ׼,Ҳ֪άӭһνշ
ʱ˰ǰԪ. ҵݴѧ, ôҲ, һҪ
, ǼҪ. ˵, ⻪ܴǽ,һСʱ
һ. һ: ϴֻ, Ҫάӭ. Ƕ
ũӵ, ô˵ذй. Ƿƶ, ֪
ʮ,. иNobelĴ󾭼ѧ(Сʱ)ηҲֻ
ǧԪ! άӭʹĵºĶѽ?

ڹ⻪ʱ仹Ҷ(ں͸ڲܵ, 
Ϊûtenure). , ʹ⻪ǰԺθԺ䳣. 
ǻŸѧλ, ԱְڴǮЩǲ˼˵
. һȥ˰ֲһ±һĿȻ.

, άӭ쭻û! ǰ, EMAIL֪ͨ: 51, 
Ҳǹ⻪! EMAIL , ǩͬһDHL
ݵ. ʵһ̫. , һеÿ
µķ, ҲΪҲȫְԱ:, 
ֻҷŵʮµĹ. ,ұ뵽йȥǮ. ҵ
Ѻѧ֪, ǲǮ, ұĹʵϲ: 
1998ı, ϰ취. ϣάӭϹڱ, 
! ҵĶiʦ, רΪһi. ˽
ڵľλǴӲʱǮ. Ϊֹ, 2003Ĺʻûз. 
ΪiʦҵĶʦ, ҲҪһǮҲҪһٳƺ. άӭ
һٳƺҲ.ҰѰ칫Ͽճ(ѿճ!). 
ұ831ʱڵķӿճ.

ܼò, Ƕ. ҲӦҵС鷳. 
1987굽2007ܵÿǷǳ. ֻҷ
һ氡! , ѧйдѧӦάӭ쵼˲п
ضԴµĽڰ. ұ˺ð, ȫ綼ҵ. ҽʮ
, ҵӹʮ. ҿӵиͱϵ. 
봦ڸҲһλȫйĴ󲿷ֽ: ܵάӭ쵼
ѹʱ, ǵĶȥҹ?  , һҪ˹.ҾͲ
й, رΪĵıѧ, άӭ಻ѧ
ȨͽǮĵ߿޼ɵĥµ,쵼Ľ. ҵ
Ҳǵһ: йѧУ, 쵼ԽڶǷǳ. ʵ
()Щνĺ꿴й֮: , ѧԺ
ԺµĽ?! ԺǷԱ:ڼǰ
̨ĶԻĿ, Nobelѧ Michael Spence , С, η
ȫй˵:ԺʱǹѧѧԺ˹̹ѧԺķ
Աҿ֤Ϊڹʿʱ꿪ʼҵ
ϵΣȻҵԺһ꣬ɡ˵ʱŶʮһ
,Լ꣮һΣԺ·Ҵ·̫٣
ڵһʱ̱ӵϣҲķÿϿʱ
ڣǷڣ̺ϣ

ллıʱ.

޺㸦

2007610

άӭҵź:

April 6, 2007

Dr. Hengfu Zou

World Bank

Dear Hengfu:

I write to formally inform you that based on the facts that (1) you 
have been long time absent from the school in past few years; (2) you 
are not able to take faculty responsibility; and (3) you have been 
heavily involved with other universitys activities in violating the 
Schools rules, the Guanghua School of Management has decided, at the 
deans meeting of April 4, 2007, from May 1, 2007, you will no longer 
be entitled to receive any compensation from the school and you will 
no longer take the title of Dong Furen Endowed Chair Professor. 
You also need to empty your occupation of flat No.201, Door One at 
Building 11 at Dongsheng Yuan before August 31, 2007. However, you may 
be continuously entitled to receive the Universitys salary before 
the University makes any decision on your employment relation.

At the same deans meeting, the school also decided that the school 
would stop financial support to Annals of Economics and Finance from 
this year.

I am sorry to let you know the above decision. We appreciate your 
contribution to the school from 1999 to 2002. However, I must say that 
commitment to the school is essential for any faculty member. Your 
recent years performance disqualifies your faculty position in the 
school.

The school shall inform the Personnel Department of Peking University 
of the above decision.

Yours sincerely

Zhang Weiying

Dean
Guanghua School of Management
Peking University

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

йѧѧŻͨ

йѧѧŻ2007510յ˿
Ļύ룺

ĿChuan-Guo Xiao vs. Yi Rao, Shi-min Fang & New Threads 
Chinese Cultural SocietyФ㡢˿лĻ: Ŧ
ԼͥCV 06 6438
;֧ʦãRetainers
ʦʸ5,000Ԫ1,200Ԫܽ
11,200Ԫ

ίԱ˲»ȫԱͨ־
ȫ

شͨ档

йѧѧŻ

200767

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

¼ع

ߣ

µӣѾʼ۸˵⣬ζ
Ѿû۵ļֵعһ»бҪġ

ڵһ˵ҵĸ˵绰ҳҲţ
Ĺ绰Ҳ֪ΪʲôǴ绰ҪǱԹǹ
ţϷһӡǱҲѣһֻ÷
ǳᣬûŪĻţҲҵվʲ
ôʱ˵ṩ̹ʾᡱûıԹͶߣ̶ȥû
ڵڶƽ˵Ŀ˵װƣʵ
ĸۿ͵Ĺ˾ô˵վĹܶУKESO
Ҫƴֵ繫˾˴ɸˣ

ڵƾǰĶԷӡҪ˽ͣ˵
Ϊֻע⵽ΪʹˡĿɵ椡Ĵǣ
֧߶ʵ̫ˣһӣ
http://www.luoyonghao.net/blogs/luoyonghao/archives/19611.aspx

ҲһƵʹǸֵΪʲôҪԱʹһ֮Ȳ
صĴʣĿɵ椡ָԿѧ̸ĿƳˣ˵
Ѿţʵо񣩣ޱˣҲһ˫ر׼

ԣҲ̫Ƶ͡

ӣǰڹˮдıȽϻңһƳ
֣һ˵˵ӺöϣǷϣ
ȨϣõӵĲͶûڡǷϡʲô
ġųˣֻΪվͷӵüֵ
õǲģںĽʹž˼

Ӿ͸ˣһ湥Ӻûʲôϵɡ
ӦվͷӽͿѧҵϵʧ
⣬ͼһһţӺûϵӦӦ
ģһ湥ӣ뷽ĹϵѾʧȥ
ȣҲӽ˺Ͳͷˮ׼

ڰҲ˵ʲôˡƵġѳԷӲ
ˣǫһ¶ĻɫֻҾûʲô˵ģ

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

ˣƣ

ߣ 

ţʵȷҪһЩڵﵽĳƽ⣬ڡհ
ȫͬⷽӹ۵ǰ£飬ڹ˽Ҳ˵ùȥ

ֻҪΣƽ̨棬Ƿ޸ԼʲôһȨ
ӹȻûΪţĻĿǣҲû񣩣ǼߵȨ
ת˶ƪԼһƪţŨĻΧг£
ţ----˽ֻ˵ź

ϣж⡰ӵĲǻǺͿīδɣͲ
ͷĿˣڶ----ԡгġʡµ
ггţأޱ----ΪӲԲͨڣ
һĿٶܲڣڡΪʲô᷽ӡͳ
ԼĶ⣬ȻԼĿˡƤȻŲߡȻ
ԼɵơжֶԿƿڴʼܽ᣺

ȷʵᣬ˷Ҳȷʵɵơ

Լж⣬ɹ㱻޴ķŭ˴ԣȻ
ʾҪַ֧ӵҵɼǸ

Ϊ֤ԼһϷʡ۲ۡܽĺͿǵǸ
ǽѵڻԼڶ˭һεȵȵȵ
һ뺷ɩ˼˵ȷʵᣬ˷Ҳȷʵɵơ
ʾƳԷʱϴּ䣬ܻвɸ˵Ŀġ

˭ʺǳԵ˵ĵӱæ
ţӰţļֵȡ˼ƷλΪջġ
񡱺ƾ񲡻ߵĸ߶ۣ˵Ļмʲô˲ˣһͿ
ҪɵƵʲô̶ȣŻǷǡķ׷ʹʹ߿
----һԲӵĵط𣿡ƣίһֻʪС
治Ҫ

˿ô꣬ʲôʱ򿴹йҵ˵һ仰
ƴԼͶأͿҪABCʼѧϰ˿Ŀ
ר±žͺϺޡץı׼ң˿١
αѧʹͳĻɣɵΪЩĶ˼ѵͻ
оɣйҵûйϵ

ƼηᵽʦΪй޵һ
ǰ̵ǵĲƺ͡ϴ硱ȻĲԸȲ
Ľ㣨ӣҲܸ

ǡУáֻƵǳ֪ܹ¼
УĳªֻԵαͽٳƺšǰ죬
ʦַһƪʹȥʿģѵʮԼô覣
⵽˾ǿ顣֮һɾ޹ѵĻƤԸⵣ
Ѻ֮Ϊֹ޳ܵνߵ----
ҵѷ¶ԡǡαͱӽ˳׽¶

ʦҲʹպźŪŪĺͿѡ

ưԼһΡӦò󣺣ҲŰһΣ
ˣƣʦޱ༭޴ү£ȥ˰ɣ˶ʹѽ
ǧ̸ˣõҲܲס̣

֮У֮Ҳ֪޻ҪڸãҲ֪Ƿ񻹰ҵ
ѣһԸ߳ڵӰҵá

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

Ҳ˵޷

ߣhealsperm 

Ԥ(<߽αѧ>):

һǴţ,ϱ뺷,׷,һǴ˿,
,ѧٵĺ(й˼?ҲҥɺǺ),
ϧ,ȴΪηĿɳ,ǽٸ?뿴-Ҳ˵޷.

Ǻ,ַ,ʵŵı,<޷˵
˵Ӹ>ʲô,ĿӦø׬.

ˣ˵

Դ:

оԱ֮żŮ,֮٩٩̸,̾:(¡)
ǿԿ˵ġ,ֻǲйأʨ
ѵһο¡˵ż

Ů,Ȼܸж,صһӱд<ÿһı>

ѧʿ,˾оԱ൱,׫Ĳ
<ÿһı>,ָоԱЦ󷽵Ĵ
ϸоԭּߵ޶ӣйܴӰ
죬ԵĻɡ

񾲼ţڲŵز⣬̫ؿϵѧ
ˣŵزЩŵĲ⡣

Ρ֮Ƿǳõֺ̽ͿѧռҲ
бսиΪȴ֪ĸ񾭣Ȼ
Ӵ绰Ҫ󡰲ʹƵĴǡ

Ӳÿɷ񣬼⡣Ƶǰ˵ʲôͶ
ôԶ˵ддǸأӦû룬ˣ
дʲôͶдʲôȥɡ

ʵȻȻ֮䣬ӱƼǰĺͱɺڵˡ

Ȼһ񾭲ڷӵblogǱը壬غ
ţԱԽ޳ܲ²һ£ǲҲ
йأ޵񾭱ˣޣǵǳͨ
ģҶţҪͨǺľͲ׸ˡ
ˣƲǱô绰أ
绰

֮ʵ᷽ˣǱҲѡֻǲ֪
ᡱڷ֮֮ǰ֮òڴ֮ġ϶ں
ͷ¼֮ɡȻ޾ԼȻޱȷSBˣǸǿ
Լ᷽ӣͼ֤Լг᷽ӡҲ
޳ܵй¶˽̸ŭˣ׫֤Ǹװߵå
߳ŭͼ֤ǼģԷ˭Ҳˡ



һֱע˿ţû뵽˻ᳳҳôȻ
Ҫעģͷһΰȫһ飬ǹעŹעţ;û˼
ˣ˽̸ˣָ˶ˣڿ
֧Ƶģͼ֤ơҵĵöԵģ
ƿѧҪģͼ֤ѧҪģͼ֤ǻ
ģ˸߲ҵģֻģضģܲһ㡣ȥ
һĻɾúЦ

˵Է⡣òƻ߱뷽ӳԷʱ㻹û
ɣô֮󣬺Ȼܾǰ԰ʳҲأ
ο⣬ƺû˾ͳԷͷģ˵˭˭
˵Ҳ;Ӯӣ͸һˡȻ绰һ
˵ǲǷӸ˰ɣԷӳڹľ
˵˲Ƿˣôָޣӣʲôˣڽ
ʱÿһŽᣬȿֺԱأôָӾ
֪Է˭أ˵˻𣬳̰ڴȰȰ
ӣȱæŸ޷ѧѧôŸ˰ɣй죬õ


йˣϲֵʱҪ֤Էǻ쵰Լ
֣ʵһֱܲ˶ԷɵΪʵԼһֱкţ
µ޿̣Ҫ޳֮ͽ޳о£λ
ұԩ ÿ޸˾ѲģͲͷӣ
ÿζҪ֤ɵƣԼĻ뺷ע⣬ǹ˽̸
סϸڲţ֤Ϊʲô㣭㲻˵ЩܱΪʲô
ܼ򵥵˵һ䣬з磿

˵ôȻͷ˵˺Ͳͷ˽Ҿ
ϸҲԣҴˡҲò׵ķʽӦףǲ
ûԸһڽұ˽ǸǸˡ

ӡϴʿ˷ӵϣ޲أ
ɵƣλ;˵ʲôѽû񾲲ϴ
ά˫ر׼ѽ

ǰտһƪ£˵ϵй˸˹£
ɻôһ״ҳ˼ܣ
ôҰæⲻ֪Ϊϵǹϵദٺãԭ
Ҫ֡г䣬˽˹ϵǰ˸Ӵšй
߼üȻ˷ӵҵӦӡ˭֪
ûȻʮ벻ͨʮֲˬڹаѷӱţ
ˡȻҲףţţ˽
ϵ¡񾲣ǲǸӣǲǸ
ӣǺ޹ϵΪ˳뷽Ĺϵǿһ䣬Ҳѣ
ޣνǽͲѣˣţ༭Ĺ
Ƿţ༰Ϊ᷽԰ţȥǲҲ
˵ֻģѣʸţˣŻѪ
ҵľҵ񣿣ޣ˵ˣ120Ķ
ãţҵģҵģҵģҵġڲͣģģ


֪Щ˼ģ˱αν˼
⣬м˼飿˼Ȼ󣬵߼ܺáڸ
˼ƴ󲿷Ҳֶ֪ѡҪοŷʷ
ûĶйʷʱѧҲǺܷ˹ͶڴԳ
˽еáʱֻһּ˵ʷ£Ȼ˵һЩ
飬ͬʱ˵һЩԤ˾Σͬʱʱҽ
ŷ޵ķ⽨ᣬ֪йķ⽨ŷ޷⽨
ľ޴ṩһָЧʽֻǴ󲿷˺ʵ
ǰᣬ˵ĵˮƽߡйеһָ꣬ʲôУ
ʲôǷԼ鼮оٳЩ۵ʲôͳͳ
ˣУҴڡȫ̿϶Ǵģѵȫ̷񶨾֤дˣ
ģܰѱʹ˼ѧѧã߼Ҳڻҵֳ
ȡǸλѧʱΪĸԼͲԸȥ˽֮
ٷԣ

οǸҴgoogleһǺηʥ
Ƿģʥ̸ˣϵʥġ֪ʶӽܻ󣬶
Ȱ˾ʮһ㡣֪ϵ
ƣô־ͽΰˣѵΪposeȷй
ΨposeۣǷŵϣֻҪposeȷˣνڽ
νѧй״νûԶԸԣôֶ
׷ȷĿȴν

ɣǵĻΪԻ̲


ŪһƪµĲͣԼη粨ˣ֪η粨
ЧѾĻƽġ֮ˮսЧΡ˫ر׼
ϰˣԼˮսԼĲˮսԼ
ģԲУţҿ㡣ţϴҾʹĦ޵
ӰɣˣһŰ߳ȥҾίpesudo-nb
гnbɡ

ոսƪ£Լûη粨Ҳãֱ
Ӱ

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

ƺٴԽж

ߣBoating

ƺٶһ裬緽ڶٶǰ
ʲôʲôĻͱôôˡ

дʵѧʱĺܶǶʮǰ
ģͱץˡ

дӡҽ֮飬200ǰһ
ҽعû׼Ϳ԰ѷ

Ҳ֪۵ЩûжУ˵ĻҲ
˰ɡƸոճϹԼжĴ󣬿һж
Ǵи۵˶УͳϵĹ٣û
ץĿͽӦøмŶԡ

ܽˣ´Ҫʲô˽Ҫ˸мģһҪ
ϼһɣºмҲǸмң㡣

ڶʮǰƼûôҪ򣬶ٶǰûܹ
ҽĵҽЩСȻҳݡʮǰӻСп
棬ٶǰӻڣ޿ڡ

˵ʮһЩˣ˵ûʲôǾûʲô
ǶʮǰǻڳԿʲˣǶǰǻڸ˿ͷū

˵Ҳš߼ôƣԭǻͨġ

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

ơåĻӦĸ

ߣåĻӦ

ڹ⿴åĻӦ򿪺󼴱resetͰѡåĻӦ
ɡ

1. ӶԲ񾲷ָ˵˾"Ŀɵ", ⵽˺ڵͿ
ֽţðĲǷӣǲ񾲣Σ

2. Ӹ˽Ƕȷ޵ĳʵûţ
ֻѣȨţ飬ǷԼ
ţġȨ̫ĻҲ޾һ
ͺͲͷĲͣ˼ԸⲻԸ⡣

3. Ӹ˽Ƕȷ޵ĳ"ж" Ϊ˵
ѹϯһӢǸǵڵģǰ
too simple, somtimes naive.

4. Ӹ˽Ƕȷ޵ĳǰ"ʦ"Լ
֮ʱı̬Ƿ곡ϷͷϿһ£㷽ӲҪΪƵ
㡪ƷòѧʶӲüԶˡ

5. Ӹ˽Ƕȷ޵ĳ㷽Ӿ˽۹ˣ
Сڱɼǵһ? ûš20ǰ
һʱ˵εĻǼһҷ

6. ӣҪΪͨε绰ҳԹٷͺ
ˣͿ", "ֻԹһ
ٷСӳȥԷһ˶û" 

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

ƾţ

ߣ

Ϊ˿ᵽ֮˳ţһ£ƺ
Щ˿ȻţƣȻôָƵ⣬ȴǲ
ʲôһҪ𣿺ǺǣҺ󿴵ڵڣС˾
Сӣҵ⣬ԼԸ⣬ʲô

һ˵Ȼûʲôƫƫô򵥣һ
ǡӣһС׷һŮʼʱǱڣ
棬ΪԼҪˣǰŪˣƫƫ˼ֲˣ
СѽԱҪŮ棬˭֪ȴ˶ӡ
С¡ʡˡ˭ѽǳƯ𣬲дĺ
ʸȻ㣬Ҳ𣿺ãһҲû

ɽʹˣʹС̫Աˣ±ˡˣô
죬ð죡£ǸƦӾͻᣬŮңܽӴ
ôǮ˭֪ڿıˣ
ˣҰˡ

֪һ£ֻһоС̫صˣ̫
ˣķ˿ʧˣԳţƵˣôԱûأ

(XYS20070612)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

Ҳ̸һѧ

Robin
http://blog.sina.com.cn/yaowenbing

һλTC˿ˡ޵߼ͽͽ߶һ¡
һλйν䣬һϽ
ͣ۵Ļϣʽѣ©ٳɱǣ
Ҫ׷ɵˣĿⶼ˻POSEϣ۵
ôɣ۾ݶôվסţСöֻҪվڵƸߵ
ڳPOSEһǿԲ۵ġۣ׼ۣ
ɡ

Դԣ·Ĳ¡ڵдȣ
ɡͣڡ۵Ļϡ˵кܶࡰ
ɡҲðεΣΪάȨжϵŬΪṩ
ԮҲãᷢԮάȨҲã֯߷
Ҳã;ĸ﷽Ҳá

TC˵drunkpiano˵кܶࡱҵĿգ
͡кܶࡱûпܻΪأ

ڡܶ͡ࡱǸǲǻΪ޷ȷжϡ
İ취оٷֻҪг㹻ġԪءȻԱȽϣɵó
ۡҵ뷨Ǹ100

ٶTC˵ġ䡱=drunkpiano˵ġɡ=
˵ġ۵ǰˡ
壺ATCָġBdrunkpianoָġкܶࡱ
UABеˡ

Խ£

1  A  B = 0  A = B'
   жԷ...Ҹ

飺ǿͨ⡣

2  A  B < 10  A Լ= B'
   ·

飺ͬ죬ɡ¡͡С¡

3  A  B > 50  A Լ= B
   ໥Ҫ

飺һչۣꡣTC˵
Ͻͣ۵Ļϡ©ٳֻڸPOSEѡ
׼ۡdrunkpiano˵ڰPOSEͬʱҲ
ðεΣΪ......

ϣǡжԷ...Ҹ¡ǡ·
ǲЩ˿ʧҵˣ

(XYS20070612)

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ܱ˳Էʱϲѵ͵͵Ϊ

ߣEnlighten

ڲ͹ŸǮпѳԷ˵˭˭
߷̯ׯЩǱȽձõı˼Ƿÿͣ
Ȼ롣ż٣عطҪŸҸøĿģʱ
˵һ㡱ЦˡҵԭǲΪǼʮǮñ
ŷǮһɵ˭Ƿ˭ʮǮСй
´

ϴѧʱãʱҼѶöԷͣ˭
Ķѽ˵ڼ뺷޾Ȼϲ
̫ˡ

(XYS20070612)

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ǲҪķ

ߣcoubert



1Ϸر
2һЩνĵǸ
3ʼ
4ԷǮ
...

˲ǷӣҲҪķӡ

һϣңߣ̬ȣ֪ܶණ
αģװģҲЩʵȱٵġ

Щ˱ȣΪ˴ԶǡǡģԶҲﲻǸ
Ρ

(XYS20070612)

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