                         ˿µϣ20070123գ

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Ӿ͡پ¼Tom̸ʵ¼

http://fangtan.tom.com 20070123 11ʱ23֡Tom̸

ˣ122աһƪţƷһ
Сپҽѧ֪ʶ󡱣ע⵽˰ɣ

ӣҿˡ

ˣƪᵽĹ۵ý⣬˼

ӣ˵Ǿ仰ôһһλѵҽԺҽԺ
򵥵ĳƺгҩҾûбҪҽ˵پʱͿ
ʼˣûģҾ˵ôһ仰˵Ϊپùˣ
ûˣپϾһǧĹˣǸʱһЩ֪ʶڿ
ĻһȷġپھԱȲһҽѧԺıҵּ
˼άǿѧ̬ȣ˵һҩһǧǰȫЧġ
仰ǡƪᵽǱҪ۵㡣ҵ顶ѧ
ɾͽصǷڷгϵıƷϡ

ˣҪ̸Ʒ

ӣԣߴҲҪЩƷߴһʲôȽϿѧ
̬⣬ҽҩֻһС֡Ϊһ˶Ϊҩ
ûжãһ˵Ŀҩжãҩûжõģ
ҸߴֿǴġЩҩʵжã
õģϣҪⷽ棬Ƕҽⲿûսȥ
һٳһר̸ҽ⡣

ˣר̸ҽʲô֣

ӣӦǡΪʲôҽҪҽзȻָǿѧԡ

ˣⱾʲôʱ棿

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ѧҽģŽҽʥһõɡżǴģ
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ӣһЩƷģĳһЩҩһЩЧĳɷ
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ǰȫһЩЧĶȫ̫ĻҲǲõģ
Ҳȫкܶ෽ȥоȻĳһЩ
һãĳһЩҩõģҪһЩٴо

ˣųҿѺܼҵķӦáȽ϶ࡣ
ΪʲôܲйʶһЩʶ⣬硰ʤɡѧϻ
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ֵ˸ҽҩûֱӵĹϵ

ˣԣǰҲӴһѣβѡҽѡҩ
Ǽ֧ҽ

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2003ʱˣǹ1993Ѿ֣ʱûб
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ҩǷ֪жãһҩû
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ûӽ϶ҽһЩ顣

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ʶϴ󲿷ֵ˹ת䣬ˮʱҪѧﵽ
һʶΪѧӦøжйҽѧ粻
˵˵һЩΥĵĻȻ˽һ̬ȣǹ
һǻǺϡ࣬˵ʲôҩơҽҪʲôģЩ
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ôǲҲҪѻѧѧռԸ
еġ

ˣ̸ô࣬ǳлл

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ӣپΪ ѧ

http://tech.tom.com 20070123 13ʱ27֡TOMƼ

TOMƼѶ ޲߸ոյӼ顶ѧɾ뽡
δüݶվͷһƪΪӡپ
ⲵ£ƷⱾдپΪһλһǧǰ
ˣҽѧ֪ʶ˵϶ǴģԶԶȲϽκһҽ
ѧԺУҵѧ

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ԡ񶨡پǹپΪѣҽپ
ҩƷԵģơЩҩپһǧ꣬ûġ

پҽѧ֪ʶ󡱣ҹҽҩרҡ
ҩίԱҽٴרҵίԱίԱҽҩѧڸѧڽܳ
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Ӱ

һڴ֮ǰԶҽȫ̷񶨵ĽǶ̸й˾ͬá
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񻹲ᡰԶԶȲϽκһҽѧԺУҵѧΪһǧ
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ҩں֮2ձҩͺҩҩ۶󡷣

ҽǶҵ˸

http://www.sina.com.cn 20070123 04:14 й֤ȯ-Ϻ֤ȯ

ƽ

پΪһλһǧǰĹˣҽѧ֪ʶ˵϶Ǵ
ģԶԶȲϽκһҽѧԺУҵѧѧƵķ
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طһҽѧϵǴġʱѧ߽˵ҽ
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ҽձҲõ˿ٷչձѡҩҩĿǰձ
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Ԫ

ձִѧȽϷĹңǲûȫ̷ҽ
ҽҵһ淴ӳҽĶЧ

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չܵơĸ￪йĻܵ˾޴ҽֻǷ
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أֵ˼

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Ӱп챨ϯ۱༭Ѹһ١ٶʵ
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֮УȡԼħɣȱ뵱ʲôڵĵʦ

Ϊʲô޷Լħ

ߣ Ѹ
20070123 09:32:32 	Դ: 㽭

پΪһλһǧǰĹˣҽѧ֪ʶ˵϶Ǵ
ģԶԶȲϽκһҽѧԺУҵѧѧƵķ
Ŀ׼پҽҩѧڡҽרҸѧ
ӷŴҽѧҽѧԺѧı޿ΣԶԶɡ 
(122ա)

Ū׷ǷΪԼһ㳴ҽҩ
áġְʱ֮ٹپһҲֵġ
ӶԼҽѧʶţȥ1122գڡù۲챨һƪ
ġҷҽڷйͳĻ˵аۣԽ࣬ѧ
ԽߣҶҽķ񶨡ҩĻɾԽҵרҵﻯѧִ
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[ߣαƽ]
http://www.rednet.cn  2007-1-23 0:11:51  

پΪһλһǧǰĹˣҽѧ֪ʶ˵϶Ǵ
ģԶԶȲϽκһҽѧԺУҵѧѧƵķ
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ãϾٱϿƼѧѧԺԺ³ϮWilliam R. Parke
£http://bbs.cenet.org.cn/dispbbs.asp?boardID=92504&ID=91693 
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11գһϺѧѧ¡γϮϺѧӱʦ
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Review of Economics and Statistics,November 1999, 81(4): 632638
WHAT IS FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION?һģܴ㡢㻹ôö
ġ֡Ǵ˵ȳϮWilliam R. Parke
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1ƪµĽṹ
William R. Parke£I. IntroductionII. The Error Duration 
ModelIII. Long MemoryIV. Fractional IntegrationV. ExamplesA. 
Example 1: Aggregate EmploymentB. Example 2: Asset Price Volatility
VI. Continuous TimeVIII. Summary

µ£1ԣ2ģ(Error-Duration Model) 
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2е۲ȫϮwilliam R,parke

ĵ۲־ǡģ(Error-Dura t ionM odel) Ƶ
ֱȡWilliam R. ParkeµġII. The Error Duration Model롰IV. 
Fractional Integrationֻڸĸһ仯

3еӲֳϮwilliam R,parkeµһ

ĵġӦʵֱȡڡV. ExamplesA. Example 1: Aggregate 
EmploymentȻһӼõ4м2С5м2еȡ
6м2Уʾwilliam R,parkeʲôͬ

˵йָǽ[6 ]˵ģwilliam 
R,parke˵The figures for Sk are obtained directly from Nucci (1999, 
table II)william R,parkeֻSkֱָȡ
[6 ]Nucci, A. R. 1999Small Business Economics12 )
£ָ겻ǵġûNucci£ܷṩNucci£
ôҿһNucciϣȡNucci£˵ûг
william R,parkeλNucci£.

4³Ϯַקģ˶²͸˼

ڳϮ̫࣬;һ william R,parkeһΣ
The support for a long-memory interpretation can be assessed by 
fitting the approximation pk= cp k-2+2d  from equation (7) to these 
survival rates. The value for d can be calculated by inverting the 
relation pn/pm = (n/m) -2+2d to obtaind = 1 +1/2log ( pn/pm)/log 
(n/m)

жӦǣּҵһϹ, pk= cp 
k-2+2d  cpd Ϊ. ʱȲǰ, ɵʽpk= cp k-2+2d ɵ
d = 1 +1/2log ( pn/pm)/log (n/m)

william R,parkeһȻڣpn/pm = (n/m) -2+2d 
Ӷõd = 1 +1/2log ( pn/pm)/log (n/m)

ûpn/pm = (n/m) -2+2dôеd = 1 +1/2log 
( pn/pm)/log (n/m)еpn/pm n/mǴأطҲ
pn/pm n/mֻǴݹģ

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